Posts

Showing posts with the label financial results

META Loses $310 Billion In Stock Value In March: The AI Meltdown Begins

Image
 META Loses $310 Billion In Stock Value In March: The AI Meltdown Begins In March alone META's market cap fell $310 billion driven by poor financial performance. The key metric is free cash flow, which equals cash profits minus capital expenditures. In the end free cash flow is what investors want, namely oney they could put in their pockets without impairing company operations. META's free cash flow is expected to be only $8 billion this year down from a 2025 figure of $46 billion. The company's massive AI investments are not yielding much revenue and hence are driving free cash flow to zero.  Unfortunately, the emerging AI crash will affect our industry. I anticipate the very expensive Waterworth project could be cancelled as well as other projects. AI is Zuckerberg's second big mistake. The Metaverse was his first. He only remains CEO because he is the majority owner of a special class of voting shares that gives him ten votes per share versus one vote per share for ...

The Advent of the LEO Satellite Wars: Amazon Enters the Fray

Image
 Amazon announced yesterday it is launching its Kuiper constellation service in 2025. The UK will be the first country to go live. Up to now Starlink, which has 4.6 million customers, has faced no competition. But the huge buzz around Starlink is not really warranted. Yes, it is a great technical achievement particularly given that a customer is being handed off from one service satellite to another approximately every 30 minutes. However, what ultimately matters are financial results. Undoubtedly, Starlink is bleeding lots of cash. There is no way one can build a massive network prior to significant sales and avoid it. Satellites cannot be upgraded. So they must be fully loaded from day one which sharply increases the capex. Furthermore, the key metrics determining profitability and net cash flow are unknown. These metrics include customer acquisition costs. The American CLECs mostly went under during the dotcom era because it cost too much to acquire customers. Starlink has also...