Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

This project will deploy the first fibre optic cable to connect connect Ireland to Continental Europe. Pisces provides a unique route that sharply improves the resiliency of Ireland's connectivity to the rest of the world. The EU loves projects that bypass non-EU countries and directly ties together EU member states. As the UK is notorious for surveillance, it is particularly welcomed. Consortium members include the Irish subsea permitting firm, MDM, an equity fund appropriately named Equitix, and Orange. The cable will have 16 fiber pairs. I estimate aggregate throughput will be at least 320 Tbps. I admire the unique routing of this system. What is not clear to me is the hyperscaler demand for its capacity. Microsoft has agreed at least in principle to take a fibre pair. There is certainly a prima facie case for Google and Amazon to take single fibre pair IRUs on the system because it will improve their own network's resiliency. However, that advantage must be balanced against...

1. The UK, South Africa, and Portugal POPs are passing traffic today. A. UK POPs include Slough Equinix for most 2Africa consortium members. Many are also at Telehouse London.  B. Lisbon includes both LS1 & the new Altice facility. C. South Africa: CT1, CT2. 2. Raxio is the main 2Africa POP in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Hand offs also include the CLS itself. Originally the planned PAIX data center was intended to be the main 2African POP. However, it is either cancelled or delayed. Not clear at this moment as I have received conflicting opinions.  3. 2Africa Lagos POPs include MDXI and also new Digital Realty site. The former Medallion DC where most 2Africa SLTEs will be housed only opens its doors in late September. So Lagos may not be live til late 2025. 4. There are plans to extend 2Africa from the Pointe Noir and Muanda cable landing stations to Kinshasa OADC. It will take the form of a fibre ring. The Kinshasa back haul fibre was part of the original 2Africa network plan. ...

1. The West coast network from Lisbon and London to South Africa should be all activated by year's end. 2. Note that 2Africa is an open cable system which means each fibre pair and spectrum owner is responsible for their SLTEs. So it quite possible that consortium member X is ready today whereas member Y might be RFS only in December. 3. RFS Guidelines A. London, Ghana, Nigeria, and South Africa will be RFS at the beginning of September. B. Côte d'Ivoire should be live a month later. C. Senegal is at least 2 to 3 months from launch and could be as late Christmas. 4. Buying Guidelines A. I expect the combined impact of 2Africa and Equiano to drive Lisbon/Lagos 100G market pricing below $20K. On this route I recommend 1 year contracts. B. In Senegal, Ghana, Ivory Coast, and DRC you should do long term contracts because there is no guarantee that 2Africa will permanently lower pricing. Short term the cable will do so. But it is least 2 to 5 years before another modern cable lan...