Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

Just a few months ago Linkedin Prophets were proclaiming SpaceX hegemony. It was in their words 'a space utility' that would dominate space infrastructure due to 'vertical integration', Musk Infallibility, and 'rocket launch cadence'. Now their only excuse is 'short selling' as though $18 billion in annual revenues naturally implies Space is worth two trillion dollars. This inference is built on the flimsy foundation of rocket usability and 'they launch a lot of stuff into space'. In fact, SpaceX is a space trucking company. Logistics. There is no intellectual moat, and in fact, SpaceX has no patents on rocket design. Not a single one. It has an edge on rocket design, but textbook economics tells us abnormally high profits attract competition and similar designs. Just last week a Chinese company completed their first successful reusable rocket launch.

- 2Africa is much more expensive than Equiano. The 2Africa 100G pricing is $25K and above excluding tails for Lisbon to Lagos. In contrast, Equiano 100G pricing is below $20K now. Similarly, Equiano 10G pricing gravitates around $5K versus $10K on the same route for 2Africa.  The reason for this disparity is that the 144 Tbps Equiano cable primarily serves South Africa, Portugal, and Nigeria. In contrast, the 180 Tbps 2Africa network serves over 30 countries and Facebook kept 4 of the 16 pairs for itself. Note that the 2Africa map does not include the Pearls extension of 2Africa to the Persian Gulf, Pakistan, and Mumbai.  Another sign of the impending capacity crunch is the unwillingness of 2Africa consortium members to sell IRUs. An IRU is a long term capacity sale ranging typically dffrom 10 years to life of system. Carriers will not sell IRUs if they expect future capacity shortages or think they are likely. Many of these carriers have transit backbones that they must keep ...

Digital Giants regularly boast about the impact of their network investments on humanity's welfare. Undoubtedly, good Internet infrastructure leads to new services and raises productivity. It is essential to a modern society. But quantifying how much subsea cables boost real GDP is  a hopeless statistical task  because economic models often struggle to explain growth and economic development. For example, more Internet services is both a cause and also an effect of economic growth. As incomes rise, demand for Internet services increase in terms of news consumption, entertainment, and the general quest for information. Give a poor African nation better cellular coverage and higher data throughput and TikTok consumption rises. But it would be a stretch to claim TikTok generates net economic growth. Furthermore, most Internet services cannibalize at least to some extent their non-Internet counterparts such as newspapers, book sales, phone calls, library visits, etc. Disentangling...