Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

The International Cable Protection Committee has conducted a statistical study using an 18 year time series that includes 3,000 repairs. A link to the article is attached to this post. A fault is any damage to a cable that affects performance or might in the future (like a shunt fault). 1. Fault rates per kilometer of cable have dived over the last two decades. Total annual repairs range between 150 and 200, yet total subsea cable mileage has risen from 900,000 kilometers in 2008 to 1.4 million today. However, this underestimates the decline as fibre pair mileage is probably 5x greater today than in 2008 as fiber pairs per cable have risen from 4 pairs in 2008 to 16 pairs today. 2. Faults in European waters and the Atlantic have dramatically declined due to better burial of subsea cables, distributing cable maps to commercial ships, more careful cable routing, and less fishing in some waters. For example, Northwest Europe, which includes Ireland, UK, France, Iceland, Belgium, Netherla...

 National security analysts please note, there is no sabotage category because there are no credible cases of sabotage. The IPCC study estimates 3,224 subsea fibre optic cable repairs over the last 18 years. It classifies 84% of outages as caused by fishing and anchors, 5% due to abrasion, 4% due to plant failure (subsea optical amplifiers or PFEs), and 7% due to geological disturbances such as turbidity currents induced by earthquakes or heavy rains or debris slides in subterranean caverns. Abrasion often leads to shunt faults where water reaches the power conductor.

Three industry insiders have confirmed the 'epicenter' of the outages is in Yemen coastal waters at a depth of only one 100 meters. This strongly suggests fishing or more likely an anchor is responsible. Multiple sources have told me that neither Egyptian or Saudi Internet services has been degraded, but the Persian Gulf has been hit hard as well as Pakistan. This is consistent with the epicenter being off Yemen. It is also consistent with the cables reported down below. Four Cables Definitely Down: 1. EIG. 2. SWM4. 3. IMEWE. 4. Falcon Lower left map is SMW4. Center is EIG. Far right is IMEWE. Total capacity of these four cables is approximately 44 Tbps. Pakistan is heavily dependent on SWM4, EIG, and IMEWE. Scattered reports initially suggest AAE1 may also be down. But it is not.