Air Of Unreality At The 2026 Submarine Networks World Conference: Bad Business Models & False Hopes

I came across several instances of dubious subsea cable business models at the conference.

1. For example, one subsea cable startup thinks it can skip equity investments and actually finance its project via debt in the form of bonds. This idea makes absolutely zero sense to anyone with a finance background or experience in the field. The problem with debt is that you must make payments even through your revenues will be zero for several years while the project is executed.

Furthermore, it is total crap to claim you will sell capacity IRUs prior to RFS. The simple fact is that sales prior to substantially finishing the project never happen. In the six months prior to RFS sales can happen because carriers can see the project is almost ready. Indeed, that is when the hyperscalers sell capacity. But a debt-financed project needs big IRU deals from the day that bonds are issued. Financial history is quite clear on this point. Telecom infrastructure projects in their early stages are almost exclusively equity financed. Even the hyperscalers use retained earnings to finance their projects and retained earnings are equity.

2. Nonsense pervades in certain quarters that the EU will finance multi-billion dollar cables. But it is quite clear that the EU wants to seed projects with the hope that private investors will jump in and do the heavy lifting. There is not going to be any sovereignty arctic cable. Even bypassing the US via going across Canada seems far fetched given the amount of dark fibre IRUs that would be required. Moreover, although EU affiliated people have a hard time understanding that price matters, it does. Any Japan/Canada/EU cable would have such high costs that it could not compete with existing infrastructure. A Juno 100G Tokyo/LA wave is only $15K per month. Now 100G waves from LA to Secaucus Equinix are under $3K. Finally, Atlantic 100G MRCs are stagnating around $5500. So the aggregate end-to-end 100G MRC today is $23K to connect Europe and Tokyo via existing infrastructure. I doubt a Japan/Canada/Europe cable would be competitive. 

Map of Northern Global Hemisphere Subsea Fibre Optic Cable


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The British Empire's Resilient Subsea Telegraph Network

Image
The British empire had largely completed its Red Line cable network by 1902. This network allowed news and messages to be delivered in a few minutes or several hours at most depending on the message queue's length. It spanned the globe and formed a network ring so traffic could be routed in the opposite direction in case of disruption. It was, as Dr. Michael Delaunay has argued, a highly resilient network. Besides the ring configuration, the network relied on multiple cables between any pair of given end points to ensure uptime. The British military believed it would be impossible for an enemy to cut enough cables on any route to sever all communications between any given pair of end points. The Committee of Imperial Defense concluded that 57 cables must be shut down to isolate the British Isles from the Red Line network. The figure was 15 for Canada and 7 for South Africa. The Empire was self sufficient in terms of manufacturing the components for a subsea telegraph cable and re...
Read more

The Short Life Expectancy of Starlink's LEO Satellites

Image
According to FCC filings Starlink shut down almost 500 Starlink satellites during the first half of 2025. The company had them reenter the atmosphere where they burned up. What is striking is that these satellites were all less than 5 years old. The general consensus is that LEOs have a life expectancy ranging from 5 to 8 years. Shorter than expected life spans for the satellites will hit Starlink's income statement hard by increasing network depreciation and replacement needs. However, Starlink has managed to lower its LEO's manufacturing costs down to $500K versus initial figures around $1 million. So these production economies of scale might offset some of the higher than expected depreciation. However, there are also rocket launch costs as well. It costs Starlink about $3 million to put a satellite into orbit. The Falcon 9 costs $67 million per flight and delivers 23 LEOs into low Earth orbit. As a private company Starlink financials are a bit of mystery. The company press ...
Read more

Update on META's Waterworth Project

Image
META has started selecting landing sites. As the map below shows, the subsea cable's routing is unique, a record breaking 50,000 kilometers in length, and it will form a ring around the world. A ring allows Facebook to reroute traffic in the opposite direction if there is a fault. Waterworth is a 24 fibre pair system. That puts at the top of the fiber pair count for spatial division multiplexing systems. So figure a design transmission rate of a half petabit per second.  Although crazy news outlets have reported it will cost $10 billion, that figure is absurd. The project can easily be done for $2 billion or less even with extensive terrestrial trenching to create new and unique fibre routes. Will the project use new technologies like multicore fibre or multiband spectrum? Doubtful. The price tag dictates the META subsea cable design team will use standard proven technology. No one wants to tell their boss they just wasted $1.5 billion dollars. It is not good for your career. 😃 Wa...
Read more