Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

Zuckerberg should pull his head out of his ass. Yann LeCun's META departure underscores just how much Mark Zuckerberg has pivoted away from seeking AI innovation to chasing the latest fad, namely large language models like ChatGPT. Zuckerberg has a history of bad decisions. The stillborn Metaverse is just one example. Yann LeCun is one of the AI Godfathers. He used convolutional neural nets to greatly improve optical character recognition and computer vision. In contrast, large language models are an obvious dead end due to their creative writing tendencies and amoeba-like reasoning abilities (no offense, amoebas, you actaully excel ChatGPT). Fundamental breakthroughs are not achieved by scaling up digital parrots. Yann has repeatedly noted that the best AI models, the large language models, appear to be just regurgitation machines without any ability to reach new conclusions. They cannot identify or correct their own mistakes or realize that their approach is failing and adopt a n...

- 2Africa is much more expensive than Equiano. The 2Africa 100G pricing is $25K and above excluding tails for Lisbon to Lagos. In contrast, Equiano 100G pricing is below $20K now. Similarly, Equiano 10G pricing gravitates around $5K versus $10K on the same route for 2Africa.  The reason for this disparity is that the 144 Tbps Equiano cable primarily serves South Africa, Portugal, and Nigeria. The 180 Tbps 2Africa network serves over 30 countries and Facebook kept 4 of the 16 pairs for itself. Note that the 2Africa map does not include the Pearls extension of 2Africa to the Persian Gulf, Pakistan, and Mumbai.   Another sign of the impending capacity crunch is the unwillingness of 2Africa consortium members to sell IRUs. An IRU is a long term capacity sale ranging from 10 years to life of system. Carriers will not sell IRUs if they expect future capacity shortages or think they are likely. Many of these carriers have transit backbones that they must keep running smoothly. T...

Google's Bosun cable will connect Christmas Island, located in the East Indian Ocean, to Darwin, Australia, site of a large military base with rotating contingents of Japanese and American soldiers. The project was announced near the end of 2024. At the time it struck me as a bit strange. Google's new cables across the Pacific will do a lot of island hopping. This allows the power to be boosted, the islands can serve as traffic switching centers if they are hosting multiple cables, and complete OEO regeneration can be done. Voltage drops as electricity flows through the copper or aluminum current conductor. So the advantage of powering a cable at intermediate points is clear. It enables higher end-to-end transmission throughput. A key aspect of Google's Pacific projects is better resiliency. The easiest way to do that is a put a small prefabricated modular CLS on an island and land multiple cables there. There Layer 3 switching can divert traffic in case a ca...

A point: TY3. Z point: 2905 Diehl Road, Aurora Illinois. Service: 10G Wave (Layer 1). Subsea Cable: Topaz. MRC: $11,999. NRC: $1250 Term: 1 Year.

Most financial traders rely on the PC-1 or Topaz subsea cables to move market data and orders between the Japanese Stock Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. But all subsea cables eventually experience outages. Highly diverse, yet low latency protect path using new Juno network. Layer 10G pricing is great. A-end address: Tokyo Equinix TY3 Z-end address: CME Aurora data centre. Bandwidth: Linear 10G (unprotected). RTD: 122ms or lower. 12M Quote OTC: USD 5,000 MRC: USD 8,000 24M Quote OTC: USD 5,000 MRC: USD 7,800 36M Quote OTC: USD 5,000 MRC: USD 7,650

1. ASE; 100G Wave; Tokyo/Singapore; $19K MRC; 2 Years. 2. AAE1; 10G Wave; Marseille/Singapore; $3,500 MRC; 3 Years. 3. Juno; 100G Wave; Tokyo/LA; $16,461 MRC; 3 Years. 4. ADC; 100G Wave; HK/Singapore; $12.3K MRC; 3 Years. 5. Faster; 100G Wave; TY2/Coresite LA; $18.2k MRC; 3 Years.

 Capacity: 100G (PEACE) A-End: Mombasa B-End: Marseilles Term: 24 Month MRC: $40,500 NRC: $ 15,000

Author: Dmitry Kovsh. Subcom employee. Presentation Available Upon Request. In his presentation Dmitry focused on designing wet plant for open cable systems. Wet plant is everything in the water up to the beach manhole. The main components are the fibre optic cable and optical amplifiers. I define an open cable system as one where capacity owners manage individually their capacity. This business model involves capacity allocation by fibre pair or a percentage of a fibre pair's spectrum. Big capacity owners own one or more fibre pairs. Smaller players own spectrum called either a quarter fibre pair or half fibre pair. As the name suggests, a quarter fibre pair means the owner has exclusive right to use 25% of the fibre pair's usable spectrum. Similarly for a half fibre pair. Spectrum ownership means the cable delivers usable spectrum on a fibre pair defined by upper and lower frequency limits. The spectrum lying in the frequency range belongs to the owner for the te...

The eight fibre pair ADC system went live in November of last year. Its design capacity is slightly above 160 Tbps. Consortium members and large capacity owners include China Telecom, China Unicom, PLDT (the Philippine incumbent), Singtel, Softbank, TATA, and Vietel. TATA owns a fibre pair marketed under its own brand, TGN-IA2. NEC built the Asia Direct Cable. ADC 100G pricing for the Singapore to Tokyo route varies from $13.5K to $18.5K MRC on three year contracts. If you wish to avoid Chinese carriers, yet enjoy competitive pricing, TATA is a good choice. By a Chinese carrier I mean a network licensed to operate in mainland China and hence subject to its national security laws. These laws dictate that Chinese operators must cooperate with Chinese national security agencies. That's a big problem. In contrast, as just one example, Apple refused to cooperate with the FBI on unlocking a phone in an investigation. So there is a clear difference between China and the Wes...

The 24 fibre pair repeatered cable links Genoa, Rome, Sardinia, and Sicily. It is very high capacity. Each fibre pair can transmit slightly in excess of 26 terabits per second for a grand total of over 624 Tbps. This is likely the highest transmission rate of any repeatered subsea cable to date. Uniterreno is constructing a Rome data center to which the cable will be connected. Unidata is the name of the data center division.  The cable illustrates a number of subsea communication trends. The 24 fibre pair count has become the de facto standard. When I worked at Hibernia Atlantic between 2005 and 2011, cables never exceeded 8 pairs. That was the technical and economic ceiling. In contrast, Facebook's Waterworth, Uniterreno, Anjana, Candle, and Medusa are all 24 pair systems. So half petabit repeatered cables are the new normal. Uniterreno also illustrates a recent trend to build very high subsea capacity cables that serve a single nation. High capacity single nation cables are quit...

META has started selecting landing sites. As the map below shows, the subsea cable's routing is unique, a record breaking 50,000 kilometers in length, and it will form a ring around the world. A ring allows Facebook to reroute traffic in the opposite direction if there is a fault. Waterworth is a 24 fibre pair system. That puts at the top of the fiber pair count for spatial division multiplexing systems. So figure a design transmission rate of a half petabit per second.  Although crazy news outlets have reported it will cost $10 billion, that figure is absurd. The project can easily be done for $2 billion or less even with extensive terrestrial trenching to create new and unique fibre routes. Will the project use new technologies like multicore fibre or multiband spectrum? Doubtful. The price tag dictates the META subsea cable design team will use standard proven technology. No one wants to tell their boss they just wasted $1.5 billion dollars. It is not good for your career. 😃 Wa...

Option 1: London/South Africa/Singapore/Tokyo; 10G Wave; MRC: $21,840; 3 Year Deal; Cables include all-star lineup of Equiano, EASSY, AAE-1, & ADC. Option 2: London/Egypt/Saudi Arabia/Singapore/Tokyo; 10G Wave; MRC: $18,540; 3 Year Deal; Cables include all-star lineup of EUNetworks, Hawk, Ameer2, BBG, SJC.

Any so-called security expert should be aware that anchor dragging is a leading cause of subsea cable damage. There is no presumption of intent or sabotage. Anchors are light relative to large ships. So a ship can drag its anchor across the ocean without realizing it. Proper anchor storage requires three steps and poorly trained crews may skip one or two of these leading to the anchor falling back into the water. Attached is the ICPC article on anchor dragging: https://lnkd.in/dGzcSZst

Eastern Light had a very ambitious plan to build a hybrid subsea/terrestrial Nordic ring that included subsea cables linking Denmark to Sweden, Sweden to Finland, and Finland to Estonia. From Estonia it would create brand new fibre paths in the rights of way of the high speed Baltic Rail line all the way down the Baltic States to Poland and Germany.  The plan was both bold and expensive because the company approach was 'purist': completely new and highly diverse fibre builds both on land and at sea. My own cost estimate was a half billion Euros, which is significantly higher than monster cables like Anjana or Firmina.  Unfortunately, a creditor ended up seizing the company's assets. The creditor was a Swedish firm specializing in bridge loans for startups looking for equity financing. Generally, telecom infrastructure startups must rely on equity financing where the investors get shares (usually a big percentage and often a controlling interest) in exchange for cash. Banks ...

The recently announced Candle subsea cable is remarkably similar to the almost finished Apricot system. Both serve Southeast Asia. Although Candle does traverse the South China Sea unlike Apricot, it does remains outside of Chinese claimed waters. In each case the design reflects fear of China. But whereas Apricot is a 12 fibre system, Candle will have 24 fibre pairs with a design capacity of a half petabit per second. Candle will be the highest capacity system to ever serve Southeast Asia. This project is very challenging because it must hug the shallow Indonesian coast to avoid being subject to Chinese permitting authority and harassment. In such shallow waters deep burial is a must to avoid frequent outages due to shipping and fishing. Burial is expensive and time consuming.  Candle reflects the new reality. Avoiding Chinese landings is a top priority for security reasons because Chinese cable ownership means shared network control. Moreover, many projects like SJC2 were held up...

Anjana is a new Facebook Trans-Atlantic cable whose 24 fibre pairs collectively can push 480 Tbps. It is a badass cable. The equivalent of SpaceX' Super Heavy Launcher without the explosions. 🙂 The cable lands at Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Santander, Spain. Interconnection points include Atlanta, Ashburn Equinix, Madrid, and Paris. A 100G from either Atlanta or Ashburn Equinix POP to Madrid, Marseille or Paris is $6,800 MRC on a three year contact with no install charges. Anjana's Key Strengths: 1. Physical diversity: It has the most Southern landing for a US Trans-Atlantic cable. Hundreds of miles South of the Dunant and Marea cable landing station at Virginia Beach. 2. High capacity mean attractive pricing. 3. META cable means high uptime. Note the cable path lies in relatively deep ocean water (symbolized by dark blue) for most of its journey. This sharply reduces the chance of boats damaging the cable. In contrast, the French coast and UK waters are shallow, defined...

1. Carriers begin small scale long haul hollow core fibre deployments in the next two years. Deployments balloon by 2030. The driving force is a one third reduction in round trip latency. This makes it attractive for Internet backbones and Tier 2 ISPs. Hollow core fibre can use a much broader range of infrared spectrum leading to a doubling of bandwidth.  Microsoft has already deployed its hollow core product (Lumensity subsidiary) not only in Azure data centers, but between them. Hybrid cables containing both Lumensity hollow core and standard single mode fibre have been deployed between European Azure data centers. Route miles deployed and carrying live traffic totals 1280 kilometers. See for full details: https://lnkd.in/dKhc4ANj.  2. The Saudis have an opportunity to dethrone Egypt as the Middle East gateway to Europe, but it requires they sharply drop pricing on their long haul routes.  The Israelis can also participate if they stop the ethnic cleansing of the Gaza s...

A point: DX1, Dubai. Z point: FR5, Frankfurt. Service: Layer 1 Wavelength. Bandwidth: 10G. MRC: $17.5K. NRC: $5K. RTD: Approximately 100 ms. Routing: Dubai, Riyadh, Jordan, Israel, Cyprus, Marseille, Frankfurt. Customer responsible for cross connects. 

Hollow core enjoys 33% lower latency than standard solid core single mode fibre. Moreover, it offers at least 50% more bandwidth because a much wider spectrum band can be used. In contrast, solid glass is hobbled by high attenuation outside the C and L bands. A final advantage is hollow core exhibits little chromatic dispersion. Single mode fibre is bedeviled by polar mode and chromatic dispersion. In each case, the speed of light through glass varies sufficiently by wavelength to blur the signal by the time it reaches the far end. The coherent optics revolution was largely about using digital signal processing to unscramble the signal or more precisely to use physics to work backwards and infer the original, pristine signal. But hollow core technology until now has been stymied by very high optical attenuation. This simply means the light fades rapidly as it passes through the hollow core. The light is absorbed rapidly by the surrounding glass border due to the absence of refraction. ...

Seacom announced today the Son of Seacom cable project. It's very ambitious with the goal of connecting Singapore to Marseille with a branch going down the East Africa Coast and up to Angola. I estimate the cable will land in 20 countries including Singapore, India, Pakistan, Oman, Dubai, Djibouti, Sudan, Egypt, Somalia, Saudi Arabia, Kenya, Tanzania, Mozambique, South Africa, and what appears to be Angola, but might be one of the two Congos. The press release claims it will a 48 fibre pair architecture. I am not sure what that means. A 48 fibre pair cable would make Seacom 2.0 one of the most expensive and technically challenging cables ever dropped in the water. In fact, no one has deployed a repeatered 48 subsea cable over long distances I believe the Trans-Atlantic Anjana cable holds the record at 24 fibe pairs and 480 Tbps design capacity. I strongly believe Seacom management will be forced to downsize their ambitions. A much more likely figure will 16 fibre pairs or 24 with ...