Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

Facebook engineers during an interview on the Waterworth project provided details about their next big project. 1. Facebook is planning to build the first one petabit per second Atlantic cable. No details yet available on end points. Given traffic flows it is most likely to directly connect Continental Europe and the US. 2. META engineering is looking at three options to achieve one petabit per second throughput. A. Using both the C and L spectrum. This would effectively double the bandwidth. B. Cable will definitely be SDM (spatial division multiplexing). Strong likelihood that will be 48 pairs. C. Another possibility is two core optical fibre in order to double the bandwidth per pair. 3. I believe the most likely option is using C and L bandwidth. Arelion has incorporated L band spectrum into its DWDM Layer 1 service between Atlanta data centers and Ashburn Equinix using Infinera gear. Colt and Sparkle have used the L band on terrestrial routes. Most DWDM equipment today offers both ...

1. The Waterworth cable will link the US to South Africa with a branching unit to Brazil. It extends from South Africa to India & onto to the Pacific and the US. The total length is greater than the Earth's circumference at approximately 50,000 kilometers. 2. Subsea cable projects are taking 3 to 5 years from initial idea to commercial service. 3. US traffic goes to Europe. It's aggregated with European originated traffic and then traverses the Mediterranean Sea to reach Egypt and takes terrestrial routes (Telecom Egypt) to the Red Sea. Then the traffic flows down the Red Sea. From there it either heads to India or bypasses it with Southeast Asia being the destination. 4. In the eyes of Facebook's subsea engineering team, the standard cable routing described above creates a host of problems. First of all , the Red Sea is a single point of failure. Same holds for Egypt. Secondly, the Mediterranean Sea requires many government permits as cables inevitably goes through ter...

First Point: The Portugal and Spanish grids are tightly integrated with limited power connector to the rest of Europe. Solar and wind play a big role and both power sources suffer from what is known as frequency instability. Solar and wind generated power is much more volatile than traditional power sources. Traditional power generators have angular momentum inertia. It takes a while to up or lower the power due to the inertia in the spinning components. A natural gas turbine takes a few minutes to spin up. A nuclear reactor an hour to lower or increase output by 10% (French reactors do load following). Solar and wind create very volatile power fluctuations that can easily trigger a circuit breaker. In an isolated grid if a circuit breaker is triggered, the power in the remaining active part of the grid increases. This triggers more circuit breakers and usually brings down the entire grid. 2. The consequence of the first point is that avoiding a repeat of the Iberian Penisula outage re...

`This article reflects discussions I have had with war planners, government officials, policy analysts, and subsea cable colleagues.  1. A striking fact is that there is no compelling evidence of subsea cable outages due to sabotage since the end of WWII. Subsea cables are poor terrorism targets. Terrorists create terror by killing and maiming people and damaging highly visible and important infrastructure like bridges, skyscrapers, prominent buildings or sites having symbolic importance. Intentional damage of a thin cable buried two meters deep in the English Channel does not have the shock value or cause sufficient disruption by itself to justify the great effort of clandestinely locating and severing it. Secondly, there are so many cables now that sabotage of one or two has little impact on voice or data traffic. RIPE analysis indicated that a country like Estonia experienced little layer 3 degradation despite losing subsea cables landing in the country or adjacent Finland, a r...

I've been in telecom since 1992. This qualifies me as an 'old fart' or 'dinosaur fossil' as American teenagers would say. This means I've seen every mistake made by subsea cable capacity owners. 1. Buying lots of capacity between cable landing stations, but owning no fibre from the CLS to the customers' destinations, namely the popular carrier neutral data centers. You can't be competitive if you must buy 100G or 400G metro waves from a UK landing station to Slough Equinix. Lease a dark fibre pair ring and light it with DWDM. Don't be penny wise and pound foolish. Those network investments will dramatically improve operating margins. The amazing thing is that PPT members of cable consortiums make this mistake all the time. If it is worth spending $55 million for an undersea fibre pair, then it is worth adding a couple million to the pot for back haul IRUs. 2. Refusing to extend the network to new locations unless the order achieves an investment thre...

The conflict between China and the West is exacerbating bandwidth shortages on key routes like Marseille to Singapore. AAE1 is maxed out just like SWM5. Both will be upgraded this year, but I believe all the incremental capacity will be snatched up even before upgrades are finished and the capacity delivered to customers. Furthermore, China Unicom is the lead AAE1 consortium member with China Mobile also selling capacity on the system. Avoiding carriers incorporated in China makes intercontinental capacity shopping is an excruciating exercise. I've been seeking Express AAE1 100G for almost a year for clients for whom China is a red line. Bandwidth sourcing has become a marathon. 😄 In light of this, I recommend buyers consider Peace despite the fact that it is a Chinese financed project. Encryption does work. It will not protect the IP overhead, which include the IP addresses, but the data payload itself will remain safe. Moreover, there are Peace providers such as PCCW or TELIN t...

What most people don't realize is that the following cables have not threaded the Red Sea yet due to the threat of Houthi missile attacks: 1. 2Africa. 2. Africa-1. 3. Blue Raman. 4. IEX. 5. SWM6. It is likely that none of these cables go live this year (2Africa Marseille/Mombasa segment among others ). When I ask industry insiders whether the Red Sea segments for these cables are finished, I get the roar of silence. The impending capacity drought reflects the failure of subsea cable designers and senior carrier management to take seriously their over-reliance on the Red Sea. Even Blue-Raman, which bypasses Egypt, traverses the Red Sea before landing near the Jordanian Aqaba data center. It is time for the telecom industry to work with Saudi Arabia to build routes that completely bypass the Red Sea and hit water on Israel's coast. Even it means neglecting Djibouti. Carrier culture is not innovative. Never has been. Technology comes from the network vendors like Ciena or Infinera...

Ooredoo operates mobile operations in ten countries with 2024 annual revenues of $6.5 billion. It has mobile subsidiaries in Algeria, Indonesia, Iraq, Kuwait, Maldives, Oman, Palestine, and Qatar. The carrier reminds me of Vodafone, which entered the subsea cable market to cost effectively transport its international traffic. Led by Rick Perry, head of subsea network development, Vodafone owns capacity on many cables, and in fact, is a lead landing partner for 2Africa. Similarly, Ooredoo is entering the subsea market. It is the 2Africa landing partner for Oman, which must be extremely annoying for Omantel. Ooredoo is hosting a new CLS in Barka for 2Africa and also one in Salalah. Due to 2Africa's strict rules limiting predatory cross connect pricing, I expect Oman to become a leading Middle Eastern telecom hub. Right now Dubai is a telecom hell hole due to the mandatory cross connect fees that the two incumbents, Etisalat and Du, receive. It creates artificially high bandwidth pric...

At the beginning of the third millennium almost all Trans-Atlantic cables directly linked the US or Canada to either Ireland or the UK. Flag North landed at Northport, New York, and Bude, UK. Hibernia North (EXA North) was a rare exception. It came ashore at Halifax and also in Southport, UK. Yellow touched ground on Long Island and at Bude. AC2 came ashore also at Brookhaven and Bude. Hibernia South (EXA South) landed in Halifax and also at Dublin. Finally, Apollo North touched ground at Brookhaven and Bude. Clearly this is inadequate physical diversity in terms of landing points and cable landing stations. It is highly cost effective because subsea cables can share common terrestrial infrastructure, but cost and resiliency are sworn enemies. There is almost always a tradeoff. Almost all Trans-Atlantic traffic went to the 9th floor Telx facility at 60 Hudson and the 111 8th Avenue data centre in Manhattan. In London the destination was almost invariably the Telehouse North and East da...

Network resiliency defined as up time entails higher build and operating costs. Resiliency in the subsea cable world reflects two basic principles: good construction practice and physical diversity. Good construction includes an undersea route that minimizes damage and time to repair. In practice this means avoiding areas where there are geophysical threats. These threats include ships, debris slides, earthquakes, and strong undersea currents that erode the protecting shielding of deep sea cables. Good practices include deep burial, undersea repeater redundancy (the number of  spare amplifiers in an undersea repeater), cable armor thickness, etc. Physical diversity means putting a big distance end-to-end between the subsea network and other submarine cables. The farther apart, the less likely a common event disrupts two or more cables. In most cases this means longer undersea paths that increase the construction bill as well as planning costs. Good examples include  the Aprico...

A total of 9 cables land on the beaches near the small town of Bude, UK. There are four operational cable landing stations serving them in the Bude, UK area: two Vodafone CLS, a Colt (former Lumen) CLS, and a BT facility. Please click on https://lnkd.in/gGAP3QMA for a plethora of photos of the cable landing stations. The map illustrates the tendency for telecommunications networks to lack adequate physical diversity to ensure resiliency. Sometimes a laissez faire regulation is not the right approach. Most back haul fibre from the cable landing stations to London probably traverses the single road parallel to the beaches. See below.  When I worked at Hibernia Atlantic as an exclusive sales contractor, we cited the concentration of cables at Highbridge and Bude as good reasons to purchase capacity on the Hibernia North & South cables. North lands several hundred kilometers above Cornwall and at Halifax on the North American side. It was a compelling sales ptich. These cables toda...

AAE1; 100G; Frankfurt/Singapore; 139 ms RTD; $25K MRC; 2 Years; No NRC. Peace; 100G; Marseille/Singapore; 135 ms RTD; $20K MRC; 2 Years, $0 NRC. Peace; 100G; Mombasa/Singapore; $38K MRC; 3 Years ADC; 100G; Tokyo DC/SG1-SG3; 66 ms RTD; $13,500 MRC; 1 Year; $0 NRC.

Colt has bought capacity on Vodafone's Apollo South cable, one of the first Trans-Atlantic cables to directly connect France to the United States (along with Flag Atlantic 1). Apollo was RFS 2003. I was surprised Colt would buy capacity on a 8 terabit cable that has already 22 years of service under its belt. Apollo is a low capacity system facing similar operating expenses to higher capacity systems, hence its pricing should be generally much higher. In general, Colt appears to be mostly interested in serving the low latency end of the financial markets, mostly market markers (providing a bid and ask for a financial asset) and financial traders. Hence the most plausible explanation is that Apollo South provides a low latency route connecting Paris and Frankfurt to the NYSE and NASDAQ data centers in New Jersey as well as the other financial markets like BATS located at NY4, Secaucus Equinix. Another possible angle might be that the cable is not only low latency, but also highly di...

 1. APG Cable; 100G; Hong Kong/Singapore; $8500 MRC; 1 Year. 2. ADC; 100G; Tokyo/Singapore; $13,850 MRC; 1 Year. 3. ASE; 100G; Tokyo/Singapore; $18,000 MRC; 1 Year. 4. ASE; 100G; HK/Tokyo; $8,500 MRC; 1 Year. 5. ASE; 100G; HK/Singapore; $5500 MRC; 1 Year Remarks: Customers responsible for cross connects. Pricing is the same whether from CLS to CLS or carrier neutral POP to carrier neutral POP.

The conventional wisdom has been that trawlers are the primary culprit of outages. These ships deploy fishing nets attached to sand skies (my term) that slide along the sea floor. Typically they sink 40 centimeters or even more into the muck catching the very thin fibre optic cables. Sometimes the cables break. In other cases the crew intentionally cuts the cable in its haste to resume harvesting. It is illegal, but the sea has few spectators. BT studied causes of subsea damage in the vicinity of the UK using the AIS (automatic identification system) to track ships involved in incidents. The chart below shows that prior to 2006 fishing was indeed the primary villain. But an evolution has occurred. Global trade expanded over the period while at the same time governments and voluntary organizations like Kingfisher worked hard to protect subsea cables by providing accurate maps of cable routes. Since global trade has only expanded since 2010 it is likely that the trend has continued. Ship...

Google's Firmina is South America's first spatial division multiplexing cable. It is Google's third South American cable after Curie and Monet. Spatial division multiplexing maximizes total cable throughput by adding more fibre pairs as opposed to maximizing per pair throughput. The result is 12 to 32 pairs per cable versus 2 to 8 for conventional systems. A SDM cable will run each pair at 12 to 20 Tbps versus a conventional cable at 25 Tbps or slightly higher. Firmina has 16 fibre pairs with initial 320 Tbps capacity. It is the highest capacity cable to serve South America and dwarfs the rest of the subsea networks.  Firmina illustrates the rising dominance of the American tech companies in the subsea cable world. These companies account for 50% to 80% of global traffic. They build their own cables as opposed to leasing capacity because it reduces cost per bit. Moreover, complete network control and transparency leads to better performance in terms of uptime and latency. T...

Mombasa/Dar es Salaam; $15,100; 1 Year; 2Africa. Mombasa/Djibouti; $15,100; 1 Year; 2Africa. Mombasa/Amanzimtoti; $18,100; 1 Year; 2Africa. Capetown/Amanzimtoti; $10,900; 1 Year; 2Africa.

This past autumn I did a post based on two insider conversations about an under-the-radar Facebook cable that would span the world with a W shape. I was told the cable would directly dconnect the US to South Africa and then head straight to India and onward to Australia before landing on the West Coast of the US. My theory at the time was that this was an AI driven project since the routing really didn't match Internet traffic flows or did not connect to major Internet exchange points (like Singapore) even though the route passes by them. The purported route latencies would be quite high which discourages carrier interest in purchasing capacity on the system.  So I figured its purpose was to move 'Big Data'. I am surprised to say I was right.  The one deviation from my initial understanding is that the 24 fibre pair cable will land in Brazil before veering for South Africa. A Brazil landing makes perfect sense in retrospect because Facebook's current capacity down to So...

 My calculations indicate that at least 2.5 Petabits per second of new subsea cable transmission capacity landing in Europe over the next few years. Note that this is initial capacity, and undoubtedly, there will be upgrades in due time. Below is my calculation. The Amazon project is stealth at this time and I assumed a lower bound of 100 Tbps. Consider the Initial Capacity of New And Pending Cables: 1. Equiano: 144 Tbps. Live 2023. 2. 2Africa: 180 Tbps. Live 2025. 3. Blue-Raman: 218 Tbps. Live 2026. 4. Anjana: 480 Tbps. Live 2026.  5. Nuvem: 384 Tbps. Live 2027. 6. Medusa: 480 Tbps. Live 2025.  7. Africa-1: 160 Tbps. Live 2025. 8. Peace. 192 Tbps. Live December 2024. 9. SWM6: 125 Tbps. Live early 2026. 10. New Amazon Cable: US/Ireland. 2028. At least 100 Tbps. Total: 2.5 Petabits Per Second Initial Capacity.

The Africa-1 cable is landing today in Duba, Saudi Arabia, a small port city, where a new CLS awaits it. Right now East African countries are suffering severe subsea cable capacity shortages that have driven 100G prices between Kenya and South Africa into the $40K to $65K per month range. Same for Kenya to Marseille. Only Seacom, 2Africa and Eassy link together the key East African counties. Seacom is a low capacity 2000 era system with chromatic dispersion fibre. Just a couple terabits per second. Eassy has more capacity at 36 Tbps, but both cables are in any case almost completely maxed out. 2Africa has huge capacity with an initial design throughput of 180 Tbps, but it is not connected to Europe via the Red Sea due to the recent Houthi hostilities. The only nearby telecom hub is South Africa. However, much of the East African traffic is ultimately destined for Europe. Hence the delays in lighting the Marseille/Mombasa 2Africa segment which would relieve the network congestion are th...