Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

Subco announced recently four new 24 fibre pair cables connecting Australia to Japan, Singapore, Guam, and the Continental US. This is obviously a multi-billion dollar undertaking. Now Subco owns the Oman-Australia and SMAP cables. It is also a consortium member on Indigo West and Indigo Central. So I believe Subco has significant retained earnings. Nonetheless, these new cables together probably come close to the $2 billion construction dollar mark. Moreover, hyperscalers don't buy capacity prior to successful execution. Indications of interest, yes, but not contractual commitments. LOIs are soft commitments. So this is a daring undertaking by one of the most successful private operators on subsea cables. For those new to the industry, a private operator generally is a wholesale player that owns an entire cable as opposed to a consortium member or a hyperscaler. However, the historical track record for private operators has not been great. So far Subco has an exception. By 2001, p...

Looks very similar in design to our present fibre optic subsea cable networks. For example, the Red Sea is a telegraph cable highway and Singapore is a telegraph cable hub. However, the Persian Gulf is not important because hydrocarbons won't be discovered there for another 30 years. Note the cable connecting South Africa to Australia, which is reminiscent of Google's Umoja cable. Note the cables connecting Argentina and Brazil to Senegal and South Africa, but Nigeria, a major hub today, has no connectivity.

I came across several instances of dubious subsea cable business models at the conference. 1. For example, one subsea cable startup thinks it can skip equity investments and actually finance its project via debt in the form of bonds. This idea makes absolutely zero sense to anyone with a finance background or experience in the field. The problem with debt is that you must make payments even through your revenues will be zero for several years while the project is executed. Furthermore, it is total crap to claim you will sell capacity IRUs prior to RFS. The simple fact is that sales prior to substantially finishing the project never happen. In the six months prior to RFS sales can happen because carriers can see the project is almost ready. Indeed, that is when the hyperscalers sell capacity. But a debt-financed project needs big IRU deals from the day that bonds are issued. Financial history is quite clear on this point. Telecom infrastructure projects in their early stages are almost ...

This is the Peace cable's Marseille backhaul. It illustrates standard landing architecture as well as good network design. First of all, the cable comes ashore outside Marseille Port's own cable landing facilities for the sake of physical diversity and resilience. Always put some distance between a cable and others if possible. This increases the cable's value and demand for its capacity because diversity means adding it to the network portfolio improves its resilience. It is analogous to the role of diversification in a financail portfolio. Like all other subsea cables, Peace terminates in a beach manhole where it was spliced to a terrestrial fibre cable that also contains a power conductor just like the subsea cable. Then the terrestrial fiber goes to an Orange 'CLS', really just a power feed hut. From there the cable becomes part of a fully diverse fibre ring that includes dual entrances into MRS2 where most of the cable's SLTEs are kept. Most likely this fib...

Route Latency SG/Marseille 136 ms Mombasa/Marseille 104 ms Karachi/Marseille 92 ms Karachi/Signapore 82 ms Kenya/Singapore 93 ms.

Everyone at the conference wants to be Keppel. The carrier bought five fibre pairs on the 12 fibre pair Bifrost subsea network at construction cost and then sold them individually for a total of $1.2 billion dollars. This is a classic example of bandwidth arbitrage that has investors outside the industry salivating and has many Pacific wholesale carriers hoping to do the same thing in the future. Why do the heavy lifting of providing lit services when you can buy fibre pairs at construction cost and then flip them? What made Keppel so successful is that Bifrost was the first cable to directly link Asia's premier telecom hub, Singapore, to the US. And the fact that the hyperscalers kept the rest of the capacity for themselves. So Keppel ended up as the monopoly supplier of capacity to the entire wholesale market. So the moral is be the sole carrier partner on a sexy hyperscaler project and watch customers coming running to you with the enthusiasm of teenage girls at a Beatles concer...

Most African cables traverse the Congo Canyon as opposed to detouring around it. The canyon is not particular deep, but it is huge in terms of floor coverage. Depth varies from 1400 to 1600 meters. Le Trou Sans Fond canyon off Abidjan drops 2300 meters where the canyon meets the continental shelf. It is perfect recipe for sediment and debris avalanches.  These canyons were created by strong river currents that carve the ocean bottom and also deposit sediment. Debris and sediment slides can easily crush the older African cables lying at the bottom. In contrast, both Equiano and 2Africa are routed around these danger spots. That increases latency, but reduces outages. Sometimes African ISPs are short sighted in this matter. They take WACS despite the exorbitant costs and high likelihood of extended down time because it is a bit faster.  An interesting question is how long will WACS be worth operating given the accumulated optical loss from one or two outages each year. The more ...

My understanding is that standard practice is to slice a damaged cable in two prior to retrieval. Hard to lift a 14,530 kilometer cable otherwise. 😃

 National security analysts please note, there is no sabotage category because there are no credible cases of sabotage. The IPCC study estimates 3,224 subsea fibre optic cable repairs over the last 18 years. It classifies 84% of outages as caused by fishing and anchors, 5% due to abrasion, 4% due to plant failure (subsea optical amplifiers or PFEs), and 7% due to geological disturbances such as turbidity currents induced by earthquakes or heavy rains or debris slides in subterranean caverns. Abrasion often leads to shunt faults where water reaches the power conductor.

Probably not. Right now carriers are charging $7K to $9K per month for a 100G wave linking IColo1 and IColo2. This is the pricing of a cozy oligopoly, not a competitive market. Moreover, the carriers have inflated their costs by using brand name hardware when comparable products like Smart Optics offer 50% to 60% discounts on both the price tag and operating expenses (there is good Layer 1 networking gear with no recurring costs in the form of port activation fees or licensing). I can refer you to a smart optics VAR. In contrast, you can lease today recently manufactured dark fibre pairs between IColo 1 and IColo 2 for $1,100 per month for the 18 kilometer primary path and $1,400 for the 23 kilometer backup path. So for $2,500 a month on a 3 year contract you can get a fully diverse fibre ring between these two important data centers. Moreover, it is unlikely you need long range optics. Each fibre pair can do 10 to 20 terabits.

***Next year we should get 2Africa finally connected to Marseille. But the cost and hence pricing of those links will be relatively high because the consortium must pay and operate terrestrial bypass from either Djibouti or Mombasa to the Sudan 2Africa CLS. Market pricing will decline from current levels, but probably not as much as the majority expects. ***Many of you are over shopping. For example, 2Africa market pricing between JB and Mombasa ranges from upper twenties to lower 40s. Real negotiation is give and take. Not just ask. You want lower price, then prepare to offer long terms or enlarge the deal. You will fail in procurement if your standard opening line is 'give me the lower price possible'. ***When you get a great offer, take it. The East Coast is a tight market. Don't take that offer back to other carriers and try to beat them down. It's annoying and alienates vendors. It is also amateurish. Your focus should be long term relationships, not short term opp...

This device is probably a GPON fiber splitter that takes a fiber pair and splits into many fiber pairs to serve individual homes or buildings. These devices are ubiquitous in Kenya. GPON stands for gigabit passive optical network. It is a point-to-multipoint fibre architecture that requires no power at the premise. The use of passive devices greatly simplifies the network and reduces deployment costs.

Hi Everyone, I will be in Singapore next week and am available to meet. You can reach me at roderick.beck@networksourcing.net .

Term: 2 Years. 2Africa Djibouti CLS cross connects are $125 per month and 100G backhaul to Djibouti Data Center is $1100 per month. 

A point: Most carrier neutral Mumbai data centers. Z point: SG1, Singapore. Term: 1 Year. NRC: $10K.

1. Hyperscalers are worried that a capacity shortage will materialize two or three years down the road due to robust traffic growth and the absence of any major subsea cable project in the pipeline. Their network investment teams are studying the issue. 2. 2Africa is bypassing the Red Sea by building Northeast African routes that will connect either Mombasa to the Sudan 2Africa CLS in the Red Sea or a route from Djibouti to the same CLS. Decision has not yet been made. 3. 2Africa from Mombasa to Marseille should be live next summer. This will bring relief to carriers and ISPs alike. 4. Africa-1 project is struggling and may be out of funds. 5. Mombasa is the subsea cable hub, but Nairobi is the data center for Kenya. 6. Excess capacity on Equiano and 2Africa exists and ISPs should stock up before the Telecom Winter arrives.

EIG upgrade has been delayed until 2028. Three year MRC: Under $40K for right customer. Life of system I00G wave IRU ~ $1 million. 

EXA unveiled its first home grown long haul subsea cable project today. Meridian is a 24 fibre pair cable that should reach or exceed the half petabit per second transmission milestone. It will land in New Jersey, and at Brean, UK, where EXA's low latency Express cable (a Hibernia Atlantic project that was RFS in 2015) lands. I believe EXA will deploy a prefabricated, modular cable landing station in New Jersey to ensure the physical diversity that hyperscaler clients desire. Another possibility is the NJFX facility. The term 'Meridian' can refer to the Meridian line that goes through Greenwich, UK and connects the North and South poles. The term also means 'the peak of success or excellence'.  This cable project is a gutsy move. There have no pure carrier projects connecting North America to Europe since the Express cable went live. From 2016 to the present all Atlantic cables have been hyperscaler owned and designed. So EXA is counting on hyperscalers to take fibr...

Apparently the Saudi Arabian regulator is refusing to allow local carriers to sell dark fiber to the subsea cable consortiums that desire to bypass the Red Sea. This is a big blow. Buying lit Layer 1 transport across Saudi Arabia is an economic no go for intercontinental cables. I guess I should not be surprised given Saudi women are still under the guardianship of their nearest male relatives, but it is still disappointing. 😡 Middle Eastern governments love to project themselves as progressive forces, but they often fail to implement decisive reforms. Old ways die hard.  Several reliable sources tell me that the 2Africa consortium is considering terrestrial Northeast routes to the 2Africa Sudan CLS. There are other routing options as well. Houthi occupation of key Red Sea islands this past week simply reinforces the need to bypass the Red Sea. Get it done, gentlemen.

It is not a coincidence. Starlink needs terrestrial connectivity just like any other ISP. Mombasa is the single most important East African coast subsea hub with Djibouti in second place. Notice that Starlink placed its transmitter dishes on platforms to achieve the 20 degree from horizon visibility required for their network.