Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

As most of you know, Kenya is one of East Africa's two subsea hubs (Djibouti is the other). The Communication Authority of Kenya requires cable operators to report total lit capacity on a quarterly basis. The chart below shows the market is tight. Only Seacom was able via a large upgrade to increase lit capacity. It appears to me the local cables are maxed out. Seacom itself is getting old. It went live in July 2009. Hence it is approaching 20 years. So it is likely unless Ciena whips up more modulation magic that Seacom is at its lifetime max capacity. Note that 2Africa data has not been integrated into the official statistics, but it is important to note that international traffic is largely between Kenya and Europe, not Kenya and South Africa. Since 2Africa remains incomplete in the Red Sea, it may not affect total lit bandwidth that much. We know the local market is tight not just from the lack of growth in lit capacity, but also the high prices that 100G waves com...

I don't see any compelling reason for totally excluding Chinese Layer 1 capacity from your network. Data should be Layer 3 encrypted in any case and most DWDM box manufacturers such as Ciena offer Layer 1 encryption. The SEA-H2X fibre optic subsea cable went live in May. It offers 200 Tbps throughput on several key routes such as Thailand/Singapore, HK/Singapore, and Malaysia/Singapore. Moreover, it is an open cable system. This means each fibre pair owner selects their submarine line termination equipment. So you might even find a non-Chinese carrier on the system who purchased spectrum or fibre pairs. SEA-H2X is a 8 fibre pair cable whose main trunk connects Singapore to two Chinese landings. Hauwei was the system integrator with China Mobile, China Unicom, and Converge as consortium members. Converge is a large Philippine fibre-to-the-home provider with 2 million subscribers.

Asia United Group East (AUG East) cable's main trunk links Tokyo and Singapore with branches to South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, and possibly Indonesia (the consortium has stated the cable will land in Indonesia, but the map below shows Indonesia is off-net). Few project details are available. Fibre pair count is unknown, but it will be at least 16 and likely as much as 24 fibre pairs given the region's incredible Layer 3 traffic growth. Consortium members include Microsoft, Amazon, Singtel, the Japanese long haul carrier ARTERIA, Chunghwa Telecom (Taiwan PTT), DREAMLINE (Korean competitive carrier), GLOBE Telecom, and Unified National Networks (Brunei). Like Candle, it avoids the South China Sea by hugging its perimeter in order to avoid Chinese permitting (China claims the South China Sea as territorial waters and requires Chinese government permits for all subsea cables laid in it) and put distance between itself and the large number of cables packed toget...

Candle is one of the more interesting Intra-Asian cables to go live over the next several years. It is the first 24 fibre pair system to serve this region. Total transmission capacity is 570 Tbps. This makes it one of the highest capacity cables on the planet. Like Apricot, Candle avoids the South China Sea due to Beijing's territorial claims and permitting demands. The main trunk links the inseparable couple of Tokyo and Singapore with branches into the Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Consortium leaders include META, Softbank, and Telekom Malaysia. This project, like Apricot, exemplifies the geopolitics of American-Chinese rivalry. Hyperscalers avoid China and HK and exchange traffic at neutral Singapore. However, the routing is shorter than Apricot because Candle is deployed at the edge of the South China Sea as opposed to a long detour around Indonesia and up the East Coast of the Philippines. Like Apricot, Candle offers physical diversity to the usual suspects mak...

 The human brain runs on 20 to 30 watts. AI (large language models) model estimation consumes gigawatts. A teenager can learn to drive in a couple hours. In contrast, Tesla AI requires 10 billion miles of actual car driving data. And it still makes elementary driving errors like failing to stop for trains: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-08-22/nvidia-customers-notified-about-ai-related-price-hikes-above-15? So is betting the house on a resource-intensive, but second rate technology? Large language models appear too expensive and too mediocre in performance to be the future of AI.

The Echo cable is a 12 fibre network directly linking Singapore to California with with a Guam branching unit. Bifrost, the other cable connecting Singapore and the US, also lands in Bifrost. I believe each cable effectively serves as backup for the other because traffic can be rerouted at Guam. Both cables are only 12 fibre pairs due to the great distances involved. Its design capacity is 260 Tbps. A key feature of both Bifrost and Echo is they bypass the South China Sea even though it is part of the shortest path between Singapore and the US West Coast. Hence Chinese permits are avoided, resiliency is improved since most Intra-Asian traffic traverses the South China Sea, and the cable is more protected from Chinese tapping or attack. However, it does come as a price. The cable must be buried quite deep through the shallow Indonesian waters to minimize fishing boat or anchor damage. And Indonesia is quite slow to issue permits for new subsea cables. So two cables likely...

JAKO is a high capacity cable connecting Korea and Japan via a Busan, Korea, and a Fukuoka, Japan landing. Busan is a major Korean cable landing spot. Nine cables including JAKO land in Busan. The cable's consortium consists of Microsoft, Amazon, Arteria (important Japanese back haul carrier), and the Korean Dreamline company. Dreamline is a Korean carrier that provides tower services, metro and long haul connectivity. It is increasingly common for hyperscalers to team up with competitive carriers in Asia because the regional PTTs are viewed as difficult, slow to make decisions, and too concerned about protecting their home turf. Uncooperative is hyperscaler diplomatic language to describe the telecom incumbents. NTT is an exception to this generalization. Obviously this cable reflects Microsoft and Amazon's cloud and AI ambitions. No public information is available on the number of fibre pairs. Given the fixed costs associated with cable deployment and rapidly growing traffic,...

Apricot is one of the most exciting Southeastern Asian cable projects to be RFS next year. In fact, it is the first subsea network to be truly physically diverse from the South China Sea. The 12 fibre pair main trunk's end points are Singapore and Tokyo, but the path completely bypasses the South China Sea by detouring through Indonesia and up the Philippines' East Coast. This increases latency, but makes Apricot the natural complement for any cable system like ADC or SJC2 that goes through the South China Sea. Obviously the latency is higher than the usual suspects, but most buyers need resilient networks to keep their jobs. Apricot lands in Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Guam, and Japan. The cable system has military value as it links Taiwan to the Guam, the latter being the US military command center for the Western Pacific. Its routing around the South China Sea also makes it less vulnerable to sabotage. Design capacity was originally intended to be 211 Tbps...

Although most subsea cables with Singapore POPs land at Singapore, some do not, and these exceptions are the keys to better uptime for your Layer 1 network. Five fibre pair AAE1 lands at a Penang, Malaysia CLS that has a fully diverse fibre ring for automatic route protection into Singapore. Each side of the fibre ring uses a separate bridge to cross the Malaysian/Singapore border. One side of the ring terminates at the older of the two Global Switch data centers and the other at SG3. So AAE1 neither lands at Singapore nor uses any of the Singapore cable landing stations. This is one reason why AAE1 is a 'must' for network capacity buyers. Other reasons include low latency for the Marseille/Singapore end points and relatively good pricing due to the system's high capacity. Bay of Bengal Gateway also lands in Penang, Malaysia, but my understanding is that it and AAE1 use different cable landing stations. However, I have not seen backhaul maps so I cannot clai...

Building a resilient Layer 1 network where Singapore is a major POP is very difficult. Most subsea cables land in Singapore via designated sea lanes with four to five cables per lane. This increases the risk of a dragged anchor taking many cables. Although over the last ten years there have been few or none such incidents, a network planner is judged on future performance and proper risk management. Moreover, most subsea cables land at subsea cable landing stations (only 4 in total) serving many other cables. So dividing traffic among several cables is not good enough if resiliency is the goal. Tuas CLS: Apricot, Asia Direct Cable, Bifrost, I-2SEA, I2I, IAX, Indigo West, INSICA, MIST, MVISTA, PEACE, SEA-H2X, SMW4, SMW5, SMW6, SJC, & UMO. Tanna Merah: SEAX-1, BJC2, BJC3, & ASC. Changi North: AAG, BSCS, CANDLE, C2C, Echo, JAKABARE, MIC-1, RISING 8, TGN-IA, TGN-INDICOM, & TIS. Changi South: APG, ASE, C2C, MATRIX, & SJC2. Cable landing diversity is extremely hard to achieve...

Companies like SpaceX or Anthropic are issuing junk-rated debt at 1% to 2% interest rate premiums to government bonds or around 7% to 8% in total. This creates severe financial risk. Smart investors are no longer willing to buy equity in private or publicly traded AI companies because they know they are wildly overvalued. Funding will try up as these AI services simply don't generate sufficient revenues to justify trillions and trillions in capex. They are also not cost effective due to their high energy costs. Compare the power required to estimate an LLM relative to the human brain's modest 12 to 20 watts. It is not a contest.

These two Subco-owned cable systems have experienced ongoing outages that started August 8th. Each has a shunt fault located very near the other in the Perth cable protection zone. This zone extends from shore to a depth of 2000 meters and is over 100 kilometers long. These protection zones can backfire because their width is usually just a nautical mile. So the cables are packed together like sardines and if a ship drags its anchor, then multiple outages are pretty much guaranteed. It raises the question of whether cable protection zones are really a good idea since the level of shipping pretty guarantees cable damage. In a way, cable protection zones violate the principle of resiliency via physical diversity. The most likely suspect in this case is a ship that dragged its anchor across the two cables and damaged the sheath protecting the power conductor from water. A ship has been identified that was in the area at the time the outages began. Cable repairs are slated to be complete A...

If you have ever heard someone say they bought a quarter or half fibre pair, it means they bought the right to use a slice of laser spectrum to create transport services. Think of spectrum as clay and optical waves as the finished product. The spectrum seller places a filter on a fibre pair that ensures the buyer only gets the purchased frequencies. A quarter fibre pair means they get 25% of the pair's total usable spectrum. Similarly, for a half fibre pair.  In general, the minimum commercial purchase is 560 Gigahertz. The amount of usable bandwidth depends on the modulation or encoding scheme. Complex encoding schemes generate more zeros and ones than simple ones. And they cost proportionally more. Using standard Ciena gear, you can squeeze about 2.5 terabits of usable capacity out of the 560 Ghz allotment. Below is the basic topolgy. Richard Norris of Ciena (2025 Suboptic Spectrum Working Group) created the slides.  Spectrum is like any other service. You can lease or buy i...

Lasers produce coherent light. This means the electromagnetic waves have the same frequency, move in the same direction, and their phase repeats in a regular pattern. The practical implication is that the laser light remains in a tight, focused band as opposed to spreading over time. This prevents the signal strength or optical power from rapidly diminishing. However, in telecommunications, coherent optics is more than just laser light. It has two key ingredients, advanced modulation schemes that use combinations of amplitude and phase to create higher bandwidth. The other component are digital processing chips (DSPs). Laser light is subject to nonlinear errors due to chromatic and polar dispersion. The DSPs can detect these errors and recover the original pristine signal. Digital signal processing detects nonlinear errors using mathematical algorithms called forward error correction. 

A fibre optic subsea cable is encased in a polyethylene sheath. Most damage due to fishing trawlers, current abrasion, and anchors occurs in water depths 1,000 meters or less. Hence cables laid or buried in shallow waters are usually single or double armored to protect them. The armor consists of galvanized or stainless steel wires wrapped around the white polyethylene layer. Galvanized steel wire has a zinc coat that resists salt water corrosion. While armor does protect against abrasion and small mechanical forces, it is not strong to prevent the cable being torn by sea floor trawler net or a dropped or moving anchor.

A shunt fault is damage to the insulation around the power conductor that all subsea cables require for undersea optical amplification. It causes an electric short. They are most common in the deep sea where the cable lies exposed on the sea floor as opposed to near shore where burial is routine. Abrasion caused by deep sea currents that rub cables against sharp surfaces like rocks are the usual suspects. Depending on the extent of the abrasion, a shunt fault may or may not cause an outage. It depends on the ability of off-shore power facilities to compensate for a partial loss of voltage. When I was worked at Hibernia Atlantic, our cables experienced shunt faults that did not disrupt service. A cable ship would be dispatched to fix it. Below is a shunt fault on Subco's Oman/Australia cable. You can see the power burns on the eroded insulation. 

An Irish company, MDM, whose founding members have done a lot of design work for hyperscalers, has announced it is building two Trans-Atlantic cables in addition to its Pisces project that will connect Ireland to Europe. The estimated construction cost is $500 million. The network is a classic dual ring design where the Northern cable lands at Galway and on Long Island. Now there are several Long Island cable landing stations and MDM already operates one in Galway. So MDM may use these existing facilities for its project. In contrast, the Southern cable is expected to land at a new CLS on Ireland's South Coast. On the US side it will land in New Jersey where it will probably use the existing Wall Township CLS. The fibre pair will probably 16.  I have concerns about this project because there is nothing to indicate it is fully funded. In fact, the last carrier financed and led project across the Atlantic was Aquacomms' AEC-1 cable that went live in 2016. EXA recently purchased ...

Light takes .489 milliseconds or roughly a half millisecond to go 100 kilometers. Get the route miles and you have a great approximation because optical amplifiers or end point electronics have little impact. So Dunant is 13,200 kilometers CLS/CLS. That is 132 times a half millisecond or 66 milliseconds RTD. For full details, click on https://www.m2optics.com/blog/bid/70587/calculating-optical-fiber-latency. 

Google announced today three new cables: Alisios, Canoa, and Olaluz. President Trump will not be happy with the names. Not American enough. Alisios is a Spanish word denoting the trade winds that cross the Carribean and the Equator. This cable will connect the Dominican Republic to Chile via Panamanian landings. So it will include new long haul fiber routes across Panama. Canoa links the Dominican Republic to Bermuda, where both of Google's new Trans-Atlantic cables, SOL and Nuvem, will also land. So similar to the Pacific where Google is landing six cables on Guam to create its own traffic exchange point, Bermuda is becoming another major private switching center for Google traffic. Traffic between Europe and the Caribbean or the West Coast of South America can now bypass the United States, improving resiliency, yet reducing latency. Indeed, traffic between Europe and Australia can now be routed via Chile because Google's Humboldt cable will link Chile and Austra...

Two year term.