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Showing posts with the label Outages

The Implausible Russian Subsea Cable Sabotage Hypothesis

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The telecom industry is gently nudging our fearful government leaders who think Russian incompetence has reached the point that they would use a Chinese cargo ship and its anchor for sabotage. I strongly urge the Russian intelligence to sue Western leaders for slandering their professional competency.  If Russia wanted to damage a subsea cable, they would use timer charges and the ship's crew would be a thousand miles away in Moscow drinking vodka and feasting on Beluga caviar when it exploded. Just like the Ukrainian special forces which probably blew up the Nordstream 2 pipeline to ensure all Russian gas to Europe goes through the Ukraine. They rented a Russian ship which was over 800 kilometers away in international waters when the charges were triggered. See https://blog.telegeography.com/what-to-know-about-submarine-cable-breaks? for the full article. 

Update on the Baltic Subsea Cable Outages

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Both cables has been repaired, namely the one connecting Lithuania to Sweden and the C-Lion system as well. The emerging consensus within the European subsea cable community is that the German, Finnish, and Estonian authorities are wrong in claiming sabotage. Anchor dragging is a very crude form of sabotage and in this case the Chinese ship Li Peng crossed 13 cables and only damaged two. Secondly, a key requirement of sabotage is a safe get away. A heavy, slow cargo ship is not a good getaway car. Furthermore, the European press got it wrong when it claimed the ship captain is Russian. It is a Chinese ship with a Chinese captain. I have written an article explaining why the sabotage accusations are so flimsy in my opinion: https://subseacables.blogspot.com/2024/11/american-officials-say-no-sabotage-in.html. The ship dragged its anchor probably to steady itself in bad weather and turned off the transponder because the captain knew what it was doing was irresponsible. I suspect the l...

American Officials Say No Sabotage In Baltic Sea

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CNN reports that two American government officials say the most likely explanation for the outages is simply irresponsible behavior in the form of a Chinese cargo ship dragging its anchor. This contrasts sharply with German and Finnish officials who have insisted on sabotage. My own take is that the Americans are right. Nothing about the sabotage hypothesis is convincing.  There is no recorded incident of state sabotage of subsea cables since WWII's end.  Fishing boats and cargo ships dragging their anchors are responsible for approximately 70% of outages with the balance due to events such as debris slides in subsea canyon, loss of power, subsea earthquakes causing mudslides, etc. Historical data provides no examples of state targeting of subsea fibre optic infrastructure.  Most subsea cables are buried 1 to 2 meters deep to prevent damage. So locating them is difficult even for cable repair ships. Repair of the subsea cable SWM5 was delayed several weeks because the shi...

European Subsea Cable Association Gently Rebukes Hysteria Surrounding Baltic Sea Outages

"Two subsea cables located in the Baltic Sea have recently reported faults. BCS East-West cable reportedly experienced a fault at 08:00 on Sunday 17th November and the C-Lion cable reportedly experienced a fault at 02:00 on Monday 18th November (times UTC).  There has been speculation and opinion shared on social media and from news outlets as to the causes of these two subsea cable faults. Many commentators have pointed towards deliberate action. However, at this stage there is no evidence to make any conclusive statement. Particularly since the Nord Stream Pipeline was damaged in 2022, the security of critical undersea infrastructure has been a central topic of discussion, and action, for both industry and government. For these and future incidents it is prudent to consider the following: -       The primary causes of cable damage in Northern European waters are commercial fishing or ship anchors, with a smaller proportion of faults...

Africa's Non-Existent Subsea Resiliency - The PTTs

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In the last 8 months there have been three separate incidents demonstrating the extreme fragility of the African telecommunications industry. The Red Sea outages included EIG, which has some Northeast African landings. There was a two cable outage near South Africa's coastal waters and then there was the very painful four cable outage right off Abdijan, Côte d'Ivoire, which severely disrupted voice and data traffic within Africa and also between Africa and Europe.  The common thread is a lack of professionalism. In the case of the West African outage, all four of the cables (SAT-3, WACS, MainOne, and ACE) were placed within the Le Trou Sans Fin (hole without a bottom) subsea canyon. This canyon is well known for debris slides. Yet it did not stop four consortiums from using it. The risk was ignored. Undoubtedly, the consortiums will blame the Ivory Coast PTT for placing the landing station right on Abidjan's beaches. But a subsea cable network is never just the wet segment....

Causes of Subsea Cable Outages

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Academic studies generally suggest that ships cause anywhere from a plurality to a majority of subsea cable outages. The percentage varies over time due to natural variability. The number one villain among fishing boats are the bottom trawlers. Their nets scoop up fish and shellfish on the sea floor generally in shallow waters where sea life is more abundant due to higher oxygen and nutrient levels (plankton need light). It is in the range from 100 to 200 meters below sea level that trawlers cause the most damage.  Frequently the otter boards that support the nets dig deep into the sediment cutting or damaging subsea cables. See the diagram below.  The general consensus is that over the last 40 years fishing's relative contribution to subsea outages has been falling. This reflects depleted open sea  fisheries (fish farming has largely replaced them) as well as deeper cable burial and more emphasis on prevention. Another reason is the rise in global shipping as exports gro...

The English Channel: The Most Reliable Way Across Is The Chunnel

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Many networks have Paris and London POPs. Unfortunately,  the English Channel is teeming with cargo and fishing vessels. So subsea cable outages are common and made worse by the fact that only three new subsea cable has been built in the last 20 years, Scylla, Zeus, and CrossChannel. Most of the older cables are more susceptible to outages because undersea surveys and burial standards have sharply improved in the last 15 years.  In contrast, the Chunnel consists of two railroad tunnels plus a service tunnel carved out of solid rock, mostly chalk, approximately 75 meters below the sea floor and protected from sea water by a layer of clay. Fibre has been installed in these tunnels and several long haul providers offer the route at prices comparable to those on subsea cables. This is undoubtedly the most reliable route between the two countries and I highly recommend it as part of any network linking the UK to the European Continent. Feel free to contact me for more information a...

Red Sea Cable Repairs Almost Complete

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Seacom went live two days ago and EIG is now being repaired. The repairs revealed that an anchor damaged the cables and hence vindicate my theory that the Rubymar was responsible. Bloomberg quoted me on this issue shortly after the outages started The Houthis hit this ship with a missile and it dropped anchor so the crew could evacuate in life boats. It then drifted over 20 kilometers scrapping the sea floor with its huge anchor which probably weighs five to ten tons. Although Red Sea cables are usually buried, the sea floor is generally soft silt and a heavy anchor will simply sink through the silt and then plow it as the ship drifts. In general, most subsea outages around the world happen on the shallow continental shelf. That means shallow coastal waters where ships damage them via fishing or anchor dropping. Ships drop anchor to achieve a full stop, to stabilize it in transit during bad weather or steady it during an evacuation like the Rubymar.  The real question surrounding ...