Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

Bad news and also mildly bad news. AAE1 is down due to a fault in the Red Sea located between the Zafrana, Egypt and Saudi branching units. The outage began December 31st. Pearls 2Africa (depicted in the map) will go live near year's end, but it has only one fibre pair down the African East Coast from Oman to Kenya. China Mobile owns it.  The Big Picture is that the subsea cable world is facing a tough year. Right now Peace is the only high capacity cable live connecting Marseille to Singapore via the Red Sea. AAE1 is down. 2Africa, SWM6, Blue-Raman, and probably IEX cannot be completed due to the threat of Red Sea missile strikes. We can only hope that diplomacy results in safe passage for the cable ships. Otherwise persistent capacity shortages will only grow worse. I do expect AAE1 to be repaired within eight weeks as a cable ship can bypass Yemen via the Suez cable. But beware most cable ships are deploying new cables like Blue and Medusa. My guess is that the Indian owned cabl...

As you know, the Rubymar dragged its anchor for 31 kilometers after its crew abandoned it last spring. In so doing it severed the AAE1, Seacom/TGN, and Eassy cables. After several months stalemate, the Houthi rebels gave the consortiums permission to repair them as long as it was done in a low key fashion. The fact that AAE1 lands in Yemen gave the Houthis political cover with their supporters. But the reality is that since then the Houthis have refused to agree to refrain from targeting cable ships laying new systems like 2Africa, Blue-Raman, and SWM6. This is why these projects are currently well behind schedule. There is no way to complete them in the near future as designed. Probably the only way forward right now would be build terrestrially along side the Red Sea through Saudi Arabia. In other words, bypass that part of the Red Sea adjacnet to Yemen. For example, Oman could hand off Blue-Raman traffic to Saudi Arabia which could take it across the desert and essentially bypass th...

Key Observations Lots of Faster cable capacity available. Third fastest Japan/US sysrem. TY4/1 Wilshire or CLS/DC combinations available. Figure $13.5 MRC to $17.5K MRC depending on exact end points on a 1 year contract.  Chinese carriers dominate AAE1 and they report no capacity left. Other Asian carriers were reselling Chinese capacity. Hence their cupboards are now bare as well.  Only 10G capacity available. SMW5 is also almost fully depleted. At this point it is a so-called 'diversity play' for AAE1. Despite the tight Red Sea lane fit and the fact that Egypt is single point of failure.  Peace cable is not ready til 1Q2025, but pricing is available and orders are being taken. One SVP of sales told me that Peace will put downward pressure on the Marseille/Singapore route. I do think that will happen, but not by itself. It is Peace plus SWM6 that will temporarily lower prices. Temporary because AAE1 and SWM5 are depleted, but demand is steadily growing. No end to the dem...

Number of Fibre Pairs: 12. Initial Capacity Design: 128 Tbps.  Type of Cable System: Hybrid consortium/open cable model. Bharti owns 1 pair. Rest of capacity ownership is fixed percentage of lit.  RFS: 1Q2025. End-To-End Latency:130 ms RTD. Express route.  Customer Profile: General bandwidth and financial trading firms. Key Consortium Members: China Unicom, Singtel, Bharti, Orange, Telin, Telekom Malaysia.  The SWM6 cable is expected to have a round trip latency of only 130 milliseconds between the key Marseille/Singapore end points. This contrasts with 135 ms RTD for AAE1's express route which bypasses Djibouti. To network designers and planners this is a big deal and for financial trading firms it is a huge deal as a millisecond is worth tens of millions of dollars in additional profits over the course of several days. I expect to see latency sensitive Layer 1 customers migrate from AAE1, whose express route is currently the shortest path between Marseille and Sing...

I've seen a lot of interest in routes bypassing the Red Sea and Egypt. Not surprising given the triple whammy of AAE1 , EIG, and Seacom/Tata outages lasting over four months. It is possible to devise end-to-end Frankfurt/Singapore and Marseille/Singapore bypass routes by using subsea cables that connect Mumbai or Oman to Singapore. That part is relatively easy and straightforward. As the chart below shows, there are lots of subsea cables connecting the two great cities.  The key India/Singapore cables include 1. I2I. Bharti Airtel cable.  2. Tata Indicom.  3. Mist (2025). 4. AAE1. 5. Bay of Bengal Gateway (BBG) 6. India Asia Express (IAX). 7. SWM4, SWM5, and soon SWM6.  8. Several more.  Neither I2I nor Indicom are useful in constructing bypass routes because their owners charge extremely high prices. The Bay of Bengal cable is standard in bypass solutions for two reasons. Its capacity is less expensive and it also lands in Oman, thereby completely avoiding th...

Seacom went live two days ago and EIG is now being repaired. The repairs revealed that an anchor damaged the cables and hence vindicate my theory that the Rubymar was responsible. Bloomberg quoted me on this issue shortly after the outages started The Houthis hit this ship with a missile and it dropped anchor so the crew could evacuate in life boats. It then drifted over 20 kilometers scrapping the sea floor with its huge anchor which probably weighs five to ten tons. Although Red Sea cables are usually buried, the sea floor is generally soft silt and a heavy anchor will simply sink through the silt and then plow it as the ship drifts. In general, most subsea outages around the world happen on the shallow continental shelf. That means shallow coastal waters where ships damage them via fishing or anchor dropping. Ships drop anchor to achieve a full stop, to stabilize it in transit during bad weather or steady it during an evacuation like the Rubymar.  The real question surrounding ...