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Showing posts with the label forecasts

African Subsea Cable Trends: Emerging Capacity Crunch & The Red Sea

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- 2Africa is much more expensive than Equiano. The 2Africa 100G pricing is $25K and above excluding tails for Lisbon to Lagos. In contrast, Equiano 100G pricing is below $20K now. Similarly, Equiano 10G pricing gravitates around $5K versus $10K on the same route for 2Africa.  The reason for this disparity is that the 144 Tbps Equiano cable primarily serves South Africa, Portugal, and Nigeria. In contrast, the 180 Tbps 2Africa network serves over 30 countries and Facebook kept 4 of the 16 pairs for itself. Note that the 2Africa map does not include the Pearls extension of 2Africa to the Persian Gulf, Pakistan, and Mumbai.  Another sign of the impending capacity crunch is the unwillingness of 2Africa consortium members to sell IRUs. An IRU is a long term capacity sale ranging typically dffrom 10 years to life of system. Carriers will not sell IRUs if they expect future capacity shortages or think they are likely. Many of these carriers have transit backbones that they must keep ...

Misleading Digital Giant Claims About The Economic Impact Of Their Cable Investments

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Digital Giants regularly boast about the impact of their network investments on humanity's welfare. Undoubtedly, good Internet infrastructure leads to new services and raises productivity. It is essential to a modern society. But quantifying how much subsea cables boost real GDP is  a hopeless statistical task  because economic models often struggle to explain growth and economic development. For example, more Internet services is both a cause and also an effect of economic growth. As incomes rise, demand for Internet services increase in terms of news consumption, entertainment, and the general quest for information. Give a poor African nation better cellular coverage and higher data throughput and TikTok consumption rises. But it would be a stretch to claim TikTok generates net economic growth. Furthermore, most Internet services cannibalize at least to some extent their non-Internet counterparts such as newspapers, book sales, phone calls, library visits, etc. Disentangling...