Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

Candle is one of the more interesting Intra-Asian cables to go live over the next several years. It is the first 24 fibre pair system to serve this region. Total transmission capacity is 570 Tbps. This makes it one of the highest capacity cables on the planet. Like Apricot, Candle avoids the South China Sea due to Beijing's territorial claims and permitting demands. The main trunk links the inseparable couple of Tokyo and Singapore with branches into the Philippines, Taiwan, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Consortium leaders include META, Softbank, and Telekom Malaysia. This project, like Apricot, exemplifies the geopolitics of American-Chinese rivalry. Hyperscalers avoid China and HK and exchange traffic at neutral Singapore. However, the routing is shorter than Apricot because Candle is deployed at the edge of the South China Sea as opposed to a long detour around Indonesia and up the East Coast of the Philippines. Like Apricot, Candle offers physical diversity to the usual suspects mak...

The Echo cable is a 12 fibre network directly linking Singapore to California with with a Guam branching unit. Bifrost, the other cable connecting Singapore and the US, also lands in Bifrost. I believe each cable effectively serves as backup for the other because traffic can be rerouted at Guam. Both cables are only 12 fibre pairs due to the great distances involved. Its design capacity is 260 Tbps. A key feature of both Bifrost and Echo is they bypass the South China Sea even though it is part of the shortest path between Singapore and the US West Coast. Hence Chinese permits are avoided, resiliency is improved since most Intra-Asian traffic traverses the South China Sea, and the cable is more protected from Chinese tapping or attack. However, it does come as a price. The cable must be buried quite deep through the shallow Indonesian waters to minimize fishing boat or anchor damage. And Indonesia is quite slow to issue permits for new subsea cables. So two cables likely...

Apricot is one of the most exciting Southeastern Asian cable projects to be RFS next year. In fact, it is the first subsea network to be truly physically diverse from the South China Sea. The 12 fibre pair main trunk's end points are Singapore and Tokyo, but the path completely bypasses the South China Sea by detouring through Indonesia and up the Philippines' East Coast. This increases latency, but makes Apricot the natural complement for any cable system like ADC or SJC2 that goes through the South China Sea. Obviously the latency is higher than the usual suspects, but most buyers need resilient networks to keep their jobs. Apricot lands in Singapore, Indonesia, the Philippines, Taiwan, Guam, and Japan. The cable system has military value as it links Taiwan to the Guam, the latter being the US military command center for the Western Pacific. Its routing around the South China Sea also makes it less vulnerable to sabotage. Design capacity was originally intended to be 211 Tbps...

 META Loses $310 Billion In Stock Value In March: The AI Meltdown Begins In March alone META's market cap fell $310 billion driven by poor financial performance. The key metric is free cash flow, which equals cash profits minus capital expenditures. In the end free cash flow is what investors want, namely oney they could put in their pockets without impairing company operations. META's free cash flow is expected to be only $8 billion this year down from a 2025 figure of $46 billion. The company's massive AI investments are not yielding much revenue and hence are driving free cash flow to zero.  Unfortunately, the emerging AI crash will affect our industry. I anticipate the very expensive Waterworth project could be cancelled as well as other projects. AI is Zuckerberg's second big mistake. The Metaverse was his first. He only remains CEO because he is the majority owner of a special class of voting shares that gives him ten votes per share versus one vote per share for ...

A good Tech Capital article on the new wave of American Tech Giant cables in Asia:  https://thetechcapital.com/subsea-shake-up-how-new-cables-are-wiring-southeast-asias-ai-era/. My list of the most important new cables: 1. Apricot is a 12 fibre pair Southeast Asian cable with throughput of 290 Terabits. It bypasses China, Hong Kong, and the South China Sea in a clear signal to the Chinese government to get lost. Google and META are consortium members. 2. Echo is a 12 fibre pair Pacific cable directly linking Singapore to the United States. It has 144 Tbps throughput. Google and Facebook are equal partners in the project. The lower throughput reflects the 20,000 kilometer length of the cable. Same holds true for Bifrost. 3. Bifrost is the sister cable linking Singapore to the US. Its digital horse power is 180 Tbps. 4. Waterworth is a 480 Tbps behemoth with 24 fibre pairs. We still don't know the exact landing points in Asia. It will land on both the West and East coasts ...

Zuckerberg should pull his head out of his ass. Yann LeCun's META departure underscores just how much Mark Zuckerberg has pivoted away from seeking AI innovation to chasing the latest fad, namely large language models like ChatGPT. Zuckerberg has a history of bad decisions. The stillborn Metaverse is just one example. Yann LeCun is one of the AI Godfathers. He used convolutional neural nets to greatly improve optical character recognition and computer vision. In contrast, large language models are an obvious dead end due to their creative writing tendencies and amoeba-like reasoning abilities (no offense, amoebas, you actaully excel ChatGPT). Fundamental breakthroughs are not achieved by scaling up digital parrots. Yann has repeatedly noted that the best AI models, the large language models, appear to be just regurgitation machines without any ability to reach new conclusions. They cannot identify or correct their own mistakes or realize that their approach is failing and adopt a n...

META has started selecting landing sites. As the map below shows, the subsea cable's routing is unique, a record breaking 50,000 kilometers in length, and it will form a ring around the world. A ring allows Facebook to reroute traffic in the opposite direction if there is a fault. Waterworth is a 24 fibre pair system. That puts at the top of the fiber pair count for spatial division multiplexing systems. So figure a design transmission rate of a half petabit per second.  Although crazy news outlets have reported it will cost $10 billion, that figure is absurd. The project can easily be done for $2 billion or less even with extensive terrestrial trenching to create new and unique fibre routes. Will the project use new technologies like multicore fibre or multiband spectrum? Doubtful. The price tag dictates the META subsea cable design team will use standard proven technology. No one wants to tell their boss they just wasted $1.5 billion dollars. It is not good for your career. 😃 Wa...

META's chief AI scientist, Yann LeCun, explains why neither Google nor META has deployed something like ChatGPT despite developing many of the underlying techniques. "I mean you have to realize that most of the underlying techniques used in ChatGPT were invented at Google and META. If you are META or Google, you can think about putting out a system like this that you know is going to spew nonsense and you know because you are a large company you have lot to lose by people making fun of you for that." Click for the complete interview : https://www.youtube.com/shorts/bdYylvhZ9T0

In a recent interview META subsea engineers suggested their next project would be a 1 Petabit Trans-Atlantic cable. They pointed to three possible ways of accomplishing it: multicore fibre, use of the C and L spectrum bands, and 50 fibre pair SDM. Pros and Cons 1. Multicore is subject to cross talk. Right now the only multicore cable is the Taiwan-Phillipines-US cable scheduled to go live this year. A Google project with NEC as the vendor, it has two cores per fibre strand and 26 Tbps total per fibre strand or 13 Tbps per core. The challenge is cross talk. The light spills from one core to the other and vice versa. Obviously this distorts the signals and at high transmission rates the distortions become greater and greater and the signal-to-noise ratio disintegrates. The advantage of multicore fibre is that no redesigning of the optical amplifiers is required. Since everyone acknowledges that SDM alone is unlikely to surpass the half terabit mark, Google is obviously interested in mult...

Facebook engineers during an interview on the Waterworth project provided details about their next big project. 1. Facebook is planning to build the first one petabit per second Atlantic cable. No details yet available on end points. Given traffic flows it is most likely to directly connect Continental Europe and the US. 2. META engineering is looking at three options to achieve one petabit per second throughput. A. Using both the C and L spectrum. This would effectively double the bandwidth. B. Cable will definitely be SDM (spatial division multiplexing). Strong likelihood that will be 48 pairs. C. Another possibility is two core optical fibre in order to double the bandwidth per pair. 3. I believe the most likely option is using C and L bandwidth. Arelion has incorporated L band spectrum into its DWDM Layer 1 service between Atlanta data centers and Ashburn Equinix using Infinera gear. Colt and Sparkle have used the L band on terrestrial routes. Most DWDM equipment today offers both ...

1. The Waterworth cable will link the US to South Africa with a branching unit to Brazil. It extends from South Africa to India & onto to the Pacific and the US. The total length is greater than the Earth's circumference at approximately 50,000 kilometers. 2. Subsea cable projects are taking 3 to 5 years from initial idea to commercial service. 3. US traffic goes to Europe. It's aggregated with European originated traffic and then traverses the Mediterranean Sea to reach Egypt and takes terrestrial routes (Telecom Egypt) to the Red Sea. Then the traffic flows down the Red Sea. From there it either heads to India or bypasses it with Southeast Asia being the destination. 4. In the eyes of Facebook's subsea engineering team, the standard cable routing described above creates a host of problems. First of all , the Red Sea is a single point of failure. Same holds for Egypt. Secondly, the Mediterranean Sea requires many government permits as cables inevitably goes through ter...

This past autumn I did a post based on two insider conversations about an under-the-radar Facebook cable that would span the world with a W shape. I was told the cable would directly dconnect the US to South Africa and then head straight to India and onward to Australia before landing on the West Coast of the US. My theory at the time was that this was an AI driven project since the routing really didn't match Internet traffic flows or did not connect to major Internet exchange points (like Singapore) even though the route passes by them. The purported route latencies would be quite high which discourages carrier interest in purchasing capacity on the system.  So I figured its purpose was to move 'Big Data'. I am surprised to say I was right.  The one deviation from my initial understanding is that the 24 fibre pair cable will land in Brazil before veering for South Africa. A Brazil landing makes perfect sense in retrospect because Facebook's current capacity down to So...

Facebook is building a six fibre pair cable directly connecting Taiwan to the the United States with landings at Toucheng, Taiwan, Hermosa Beach, California, and Manchester, California. RFS is 2Q2027. The Hermosa Beach CLS is the well known facility built by RTI Holdings before its bankruptcy. In the submarine cable landing license application, Facebook noted that its motivation was the fact that US-Taiwanese traffic is growing rapidly each year. Due to the 12,000 kilometer length of the cable and the absence of any island landings for power, the design throughput per pair is a relatively low 12.8 Tbps or 76.8 Tbps aggregate initial capacity.  ORCA is an open cable so each fibre pair owner will operate and control its own submarine line terminating equipment with only power being under collective control. Since Facebook is the cable's sole initial owner, the open architecture suggests it will sell capacity on the system to third parties to recoup capital expenditures and share comm...

Several sources have whispered in my ear that META is planning a new 16 fibre pair cable that will encompass the world going from the US East Coast to the US West Coast via the Atlantic, Indian Ocean, and the Pacific. The most ambitious subsea project ever undertaken. I do not know the exact routing. I know that the cable will launch from the American East Coast and will go down the West African Coast to South Africa and then head straight to Mumbai. It is not clear if Europe will be online or not. From Mumbai it will head straight to Australia and then up to the US West Coast. I speculate that there may be branching units to Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. But the basic routing is US/South Africa/India/Australia/US. What is not clear is if there will be branching units to add more countries to the cable.  This semi-secret cable reflects META's desire for network resiliency given the four month Red Sea down time that AAE-1 and other subsea cables suffered during the first half ...

Meta's Anjana cable sets an Atlantic bandwidth record with 24 fibre pairs each transmitting 20 terabits per second for a total of nearly a half petabit. This huge capacity reflects its spatial division multiplexing (SDM) design. Traditional subsea cable designs maximize capacity per pair, but this leads to nonlinear signal distortions once a threshold is exceeded. Hence additional power to boost the rate above the threshold yields only small gains. This inefficient use of power limits fiber pair counts to 8 or less per cable with most cables rarely exceeding 150 Tbps. In contast, SDM increases the total bandwidth punch by operating each pair at lower transmission rates to avoid these nonlinear signal distortions. In turn, the lower transmission rates free up power to support enough more pairs to sharply raise total cable throughput, which ranges from 200 Tbps to a half petabit per second.  Another notable feature of Anjana is that it lands at Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and Santa...