The Google/US Government Pacific Subsea Cable Power Play

The planned Bulikala cable connects Google's modular prefabricated Guam CLS to Fiji. The branch is right below Guam on the map at the bottom of this page. It is part of a large scale Google project costing a billion dollars  to dramatically increase Pacific subsea throughput and resiliency via a web of island hopping fibre optic cables. These small islands such as Fiji, Christmas Island, the Marshalls, and Polynesia offer diverse network routing that is particularly valuable in case of a subsea cable segment goes dark. They also offer power, which is the gating factor for throughput over long distances. All power conductors lead to voltage drawdown which limits bandwidth. Boosting power at intermediate points will allow higher transmission rates and lead to better return on the capital invested. The overall plan is to connect Japan, Guam, Hawaii, many islands such as Fiji and French Polynesia to the US in such a way as to increase both throughput via power stops at small islands and routing resiliency. 

The Bulikala deployment is well underway with a branch recently landing on Tuvalu island, which has only satellite connectivity today. The branch is a joint project of Google and the island's PTT. Most Pacific islands are poor due to limited resources, geographic isolation, and poor digital connectivity. They are also threatened by rising water due to global warming. Even the Hawaii island chain is relatively poor with Honolulu being surprisingly run down. So these islands generally welcome these subsidized subsea cable branches as well as the US government's digital aid generosity. 

There is a mighty power play at work here. The US government provides aid to these islands sprinkled across the Pacific Ocean for their on-land digital infrastructure while Google delivers high capacity subsea connectivity to them. Not a coincidence, but a coordinated strategy to create a web of Western friendly states. Google gets the electricity required to significantly boost transmission rates as well as excellent network physical diversity to improve resiliency. Outages on a particular network segment can be quickly offset by rerouting traffic. In turn, the US government gets friendly states that will take its side in any major conflict with China. For example, these small islands offer intelligence gathering sites where early warning systems could be installed. Indeed, some may qualify as potential military base real estate or fuel depots. In general, the US government under Biden has outflanked China whose territorial water disputes with virtually all its neighbours has alienated the majority of them. Even Southeast Asian countries that accept China's aid and warm embrace are not true believers in the sincerity of its intentiona. s

The Pentagon is concerned that defending Taiwan and other Pacific Rim states is extremely difficult given their proximity to China. To be successful the  US must have large number of bases outside the reach of mainland Chinese missiles. Indeed, American forces are already being dispersed throughout the Pacific Ocean to ensure a greater percentage survive Chinese missile strikes. Geographic diversification is key to military success in this part of the world. 

Biden deserves credit for executing on Obama's Asia pivot. The US has earned a very valuable intangible asset, good will, in a region where China is throwing money around with abandon and subsidizing subsea cable builds. China is claiming the strategic South China Sea which international law and the International Court recognize as international waters. Furthermore, China is threatening a Taiwan invasion in order to distract its own population from its internal economic woes. These problems including a drop in annual growth since 2015 from 10% per annum to 4.5 % per annum in 2023. China has a rapidly aging population whose average age will be 50 by mid-century. A demographic death sentence. China is also harassing the Philippines using its mercantile fleet to engage in swarm tactics over disputed islands. While Google's primary goal is to ensure its dominance of online advertising and search in Asia, it is not a consequence that it is apparently coordinating its actions with the US government.