Houthi Rebels Endangering Subsea Projects Including SWM6 & 2Africa

As you know, the Rubymar dragged its anchor for 31 kilometers after its crew abandoned it last spring. In so doing it severed the AAE1, Seacom/TGN, and Eassy cables. After several months stalemate, the Houthi rebels gave the consortiums permission to repair them as long as it was done in a low key fashion. The fact that AAE1 lands in Yemen gave the Houthis political cover with their supporters.

But the reality is that since then the Houthis have refused to agree to refrain from targeting cable ships laying new systems like 2Africa, Blue-Raman, and SWM6. This is why these projects are currently well behind schedule. There is no way to complete them in the near future as designed. Probably the only way forward right now would be build terrestrially along side the Red Sea through Saudi Arabia. In other words, bypass that part of the Red Sea adjacnet to Yemen. For example, Oman could hand off Blue-Raman traffic to Saudi Arabia which could take it across the desert and essentially bypass the Red Sea. I can imagine Google agreeing to this routing as it would improve the cable's physical diversity. Saudi Arabia would also benefit as it gets an even bigger role in the project plus it angers the Houthi rebels. Saudi Arabia is supporting the internationally recognized Yemen government with the rebels viewed as a threat to regional stability and status quo. But 2Africa is a much greater challenge Blue Raman. It would require massive redesign to avoid the Red Sea. Moreover, Djibouti has already built a new CLS for the cable that would become a stranded asset as would several Saudi Arabian and Egyptian CLS facilities. Furthermore, Egypt is a consortium member whose main reason for participating is collecting transit fees from 2Africa circuits traversing its hinterland. Another endangered project is SWM6 which is designed to link Singapore, India, and a host of other nations to Marseille via the Red Sea. Consortium members include Saudi Arabia, Djibouti, and Telecom Egypt. All three would object to any alternative route to the Red Sea.

Key Conclusions:

***Unless there is a Mideast ceasefire, the Houthis will continue threaten any Red Sea construction.

***Given the delays already incurred, neither SWM6, Blue-Raman or the Red Sea segment of 2Africa will probably be finished this year. Blue-Raman could be redesigned to go across the Arabian desert, and in fact, it should have been designed from the get go that way. But SWM6 and 2Africa are consortium projects where any decision to bypass the Red Sea would be opposed by politically important consortium members.

***AAE1 and possibly even SWM5 might be upgraded this year as they are the main data highways in service connecting the Far and Middle East to Europe. Right now they are vital data highway arteries.