Notes On The African Subsea Telecom Market

1. Capacity shortages will develop within 2 years because Equiano and 2Africa are insufficient given the vast number of countries they serve. Only South Africa and Nigeria have adequate capacity. But for many countries 2Africa is the only truly modern and reliable system with good long haul pricing and reasonable cross connect fees. Now 2Africa is 180 Tbps, but serves at least 30 countries in total. Even if we exclude the Pearls component, we are looking at Egypt, Italy, France, Portugal, UK, Sudan, Djibouti, Kenya, Somalia, Seychelles, Tanzania, Mozambique, Madagascar, South Africa, Angola, the two Congos, Gabon, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Senegal, Togo, and Senegal.

I count 27 in the core African network. Divide by 180/27=6.7 Tbps.

Capacity shortages are almost guaranteed particularly given some migration from the older, less reliable systems with their high cross connect charges to 2Africa and Equiano.

One factor that may alleviate stress on the telecom ecosystem would be a 2Africa capacity upgrade, but that is a low priority given the struggles many consortium members are experiencing trying to get their own networks up and running. Remember, 2Africa is a open cable. So individual carriers are responsible for service with some already operating like Bayobab and others not yet ready like CMI on the West Coast.

2. Cost effective, physically diverse backhaul is a big problem for the two Congos. Those nations desperately WIOCC to finish the promised fibre ring between the cable landing stations and Kinshasa.

3. Some markets like Ghana, Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya are carrier friendly. But Senegal is essentially closed due to the use of licensing to prevent potential competitors from operating in the country. Many 2Africa consortium members are not providing service there because the government is effectively blocking them to protect the PTT and its part owner, Orange.

4. There is a need for West-East terrestrial fibre bridges to improve routing options to lower latency and also improve resiliency. It also necessary to assist landlocked African countries who face exorbitant cross border costs to reach the coastal hubs. This is the most challenging aspect of African telecommunications. Distrust between landlocked African nations is rampant. Their own internal markets are not deregulated.

5. Small Northeastern countries like Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, and the Gambia have been left behind. Some have no cables and others just have ACE. There is a need for an unrepeatered system to bring them to Ghana or Senegal.

6. Red Sea is a hornets nest. There are two possible bypass routes: via Saudia Arabia to Israel to avoid the Red Sea and Egyptian transit fees and from Kenya across Africa to the West Coast.

7. At least three new high capacity systems need to go live by 2030. At least one needs to bridge the West and East Coasts via a terrestrial route.