Geography Is Destiny: Lessons For the EU Arctic Cable Aspirations

The EU has given tens of millions of Euros in preliminary development funds to kick start an Arctic cable that would bypass North America and connect Northern Europe to Japan. There have been ongoing efforts for over a decade to execute such a project, the most recent incarnation is Polar Connect.

The idea is to create a new, highly diverse and ultra-low latency route linking Europe to Asia that bypasses the politically unstable Middle East and the less-than-friendly and lukewarm American ally. Although there could be some Russian harassment due to concerns about the cable serving as a surveillance tool via sensors attached it, the path looks downright idyllic in terms of the political environment relative to the Middle East.

However, a glance at the map shows the immense challenge. One of the unwritten rules of cable deployment is to avoid shallow waters. Most recently built cables head immediately from their landing points to deep sea as quickly as possible. Ships infest shallow waters and they are the great predators of subsea communication networks either in the form of fish nets or anchors dragged along the sea floor. So any cable must go right through the thick ice of the North Pole. This requires a specially designed cable ship that doubles as an icebreaker. I am not aware of any ship in service today or under construction.

But ensuring the safety of the crew deploying a cable from Norway or Ireland across the North Pole and through the Bering Strait requires at least two ships, a cable ship to deploy, and another icebreaker as well. Indeed, prudence might require two icebreakers. So this is an immensely costly undertaking. The figures openly discussed today by advocates of a polar cable today exceed a billion Euros. But it gets twice as expensive because unless timely repairs can be guaranteed, a second cable diverse to the first is required as well. So a diverse ring might exceed 2 billion Euros. Although the Bering Strait looks narrow, it is about 85 kilometers wide. So threading two cables is possible.

Subsea cables today are usually hyperscaler or consortium projects. That's a big problem because the hyperscalers view this project as ultra-high risk and they see no reason avoid the US since it is their home base. Their concerns include lots of down time due to ice scouring as well as possible geopolitical conflicts involving the Russian side of the Bering Strait. Only one carrier is really involved in the project, Global Connect. What that tells me is that the Polar Connect advocates have little meaningful financial support. Meaningful means the funds to execute the project, not the funds to set up a website, hire a team of poorly qualified individuals, and perhaps get an EU handout to do part of a geophysical survey. Indeed, Polar Connect staff has virtually no experience in the subsea cable industry, no engineering or technology backgrounds.