Imminent SpaceX IPO - Brief Comments
***Company's IPO target of $1.5 trillion translates to paying $75 billion for every billion in expected 2026 revenue ($20 billion). ***By any reasonable historical measure SpaceX stock is wildly expensive, in part due to the half trillion dollar value assigned to X, a mature company losing one billion dollars each year. Calling X 'AI' doesn't change the fact it is a social media ghetto abandoned by everyone left of the Extreme Right. Moreover, Grok is not a breakthrough technology. It is just another large language model digital parrot. ***The only way to rationalize the likely IPO price is to assume that Starlink is a natural monopoly. This is a remarkably dubious assumption given that Starlink's competitors will operate tens of thousands of LEOs and MEOs, most of which are higher capacity than the existing Starlink fleet. The enormous LEO/MEO capacity that goes live over the next five years will easily saturate the market and crash pricing. Winners and losers is...