Imminent SpaceX IPO - Brief Comments

***Company's IPO target of $1.5 trillion translates to paying $75 billion for every billion in expected 2026 revenue ($20 billion). 

***By any reasonable historical measure SpaceX stock is wildly expensive, in part due to the half trillion dollar value assigned to X, a mature company losing one billion dollars each year. Calling X 'AI' doesn't change the fact it is a social media ghetto abandoned by everyone left of the Extreme Right. Moreover, Grok is not a breakthrough technology. It is just another large language model digital parrot. 

***The only way to rationalize the likely IPO price is to assume that Starlink is a natural monopoly. This is a remarkably dubious assumption given that Starlink's competitors will operate tens of thousands of LEOs and MEOs, most of which are higher capacity than the existing Starlink fleet. The enormous LEO/MEO capacity that goes live over the next five years will easily saturate the market and crash pricing. Winners and losers is not the right the description. Survivors and the dead more closely mirrors the likely outcome. 

***Starlink stock pricing will crash from its IPO high over the next three years as its monopoly premium evaporates in the emerging Wild West competitive landscape. 

For more details on the IPO, see https://satnews.com/2026/03/01/spacex-prepares-for-record-breaking-1-75-trillion-confidential-ipo-filing-in-march/

Screenshot of Article Headline Stating SpaceX Preparing To Go Public




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