Subsea Cables & Internet Infrastructure

 Oracle's stock price is diving. Why? A lesson for the AI industry. An AI data center customer faces no switching costs as they are simply installing data and software in bare metal servers leased to them by the data center. The result is a buyer's market as opposed to the traditional sellers market in which Equinix and Digital Reality operate. Oracle, the software company, reinvented itself as a cloud provider and then pivoted to AI data centers when the cloud angle proved disappointing and AI became hot.  But in a traditional data center the customer installs their equipment and this makes leaving the facility very expensive and difficult as it means they lose an operating network node. In many cases the exit costs can be in the millions of Euros or dollars and require a network redesign to ensure traffic flows are not disrupted. So the traditional data center is more like the Hotel California in the Eagles song where you can check in, but never leave.  In contrast, mos...

Just a few months ago Linkedin Prophets were proclaiming SpaceX hegemony. It was in their words 'a space utility' that would dominate space infrastructure due to 'vertical integration', Musk Infallibility, and 'rocket launch cadence'. Now their only excuse is 'short selling' as though $18 billion in annual revenues naturally implies Space is worth two trillion dollars. This inference is built on the flimsy foundation of rocket usability and 'they launch a lot of stuff into space'. In fact, SpaceX is a space trucking company. Logistics. There is no intellectual moat, and in fact, SpaceX has no patents on rocket design. Not a single one. It has an edge on rocket design, but textbook economics tells us abnormally high profits attract competition and similar designs. Just last week a Chinese company completed their first successful reusable rocket launch.

Fear is gripping the SpaceX Faithful as they watch their Dreams of Dominating the Galaxy evaporate in the harsh glare of market financial scrutiny. Short term the market is a voting machine. But long term, it's a calculating machine. August 5th is the quarterly earning release. It will show more massive losses just like 1Q2026. Moreover, the investors that financed SpaceX as a private company will soon be able to sell their shares and given the downward price trajectory, they will not hesitate to sell. 😉 I think the stock's fair value is in the 30s. I recommend a buy when it gets there. 😄

Goldman Sachs, the lead for the public offering, justified the $150 IPO price based on the assumption that SpaceX 2025 revenues of $18.67 billion would grow to $474 billion in 2030, including the AI division, which generated $3 billion in 2025, growing to $322 billion in 2030. Given that most of of the AI division's data center space has been leased to third parties in the last several months, this may be a bit generous. 🙃  The entire Goldman Sachs forecast was grounded in the premise that SpaceX will dominate the AI space. Yet its own employees don't use its trademark Grok product and the AI division's subscription growth is 24% per annum with total 2025 revenues of $3 billion. In contrast, OpenAI's revenues for the same year were $25 billion with a 233% annual growth rate. 

Stocks of publicly traded companies including Coreweave, META, Microsoft, and Oracle have lost 4% to 39% of their stock market value over the last year. Coreweave's core business is building data centers stocked with GPUs to rent AI service providers for estimation and inference. Obviously, this makes the standard data center look downright capital light. Racks must be populated with servers and GPUs and capable of handling 120Kw power loads. So power infrastructure and backup alone cost many multiples more on a per square meter basis than the standard telecom hotel. Moreover, these data centers must be bigger because a large language model might have trillions of parameters to be estimated. Coreweave's massive debt loads have led to a 37% decline in its market value over the last twelve months.  Secondly, customer switching costs are very low in the AI data center market. AI service providers are software companies. They download their data into the bare metal ...

SpaceX is the most over-valued stock in the Solar System with a stock valuation 100x current sales The smart money that invested in SpaceX as a private company knows it is wildly over-valued and will sell their stock when the IPO lockup periods expire this autumn. The float, the amount of shares registered for public trading, will increase 20% to 30%. That is a huge increase in supply. Moreover, the bond market, the best measure of risk, is pricing SpaceX bonds as junk. Unlike equity, bond investors are level headed and don't give a damn about technology hype. Only financials matter in the end. For a recent forecast of the impending implosion: https://finance.biggo.com/news/0e4c9f77-64fb-4bba-8193-43f26b36b74f.