US Military Strikes Against Houthis: More Delays For 2Africa, Africa-1, Etc.

What most people don't realize is that the following cables have not threaded the Red Sea yet due to the threat of Houthi missile attacks:

1. 2Africa.

2. Africa-1.

3. Blue Raman.

4. IEX.

5. SWM6.

It is likely that none of these cables go live this year (2Africa Marseille/Mombasa segment among others ). When I ask industry insiders whether the Red Sea segments for these cables are finished, I get the roar of silence. The impending capacity drought reflects the failure of subsea cable designers and senior carrier management to take seriously their over-reliance on the Red Sea. Even Blue-Raman, which bypasses Egypt, traverses the Red Sea before landing near the Jordanian Aqaba data center. It is time for the telecom industry to work with Saudi Arabia to build routes that completely bypass the Red Sea and hit water on Israel's coast. Even it means neglecting Djibouti.

Carrier culture is not innovative. Never has been. Technology comes from the network vendors like Ciena or Infinera. Most carrier senior management has no history of creative undertakings. They climbed the ranks via rigid adherence to rules, covering their ass, and adding more rules to show they are 'productive'. They have mostly MBA degrees, not engineering, software or computer science degrees like their high tech industry counterparts.

Unfortunately, the American President is an insecure bully who thinks air power can intimidate an insurgency movement. It didn't work in Vietnam, Iraq or Afghanistan. Air strikes make for great political theatrics: lots of visible damage that caters to the President's insecure supporters. I am sure Fox News is highlighting these attacks as America making the world safe for freedom. 😀 But in general, wars are won on the ground. I don't believe that isolationist Trump is ready to engage in such a conflict. There is a possibility that a coalition of Arab nations ousts the Houthis, but it is important to understand the relevant history. The Houthis rebelled against Yemen's authoritarian President in the 90s in order to gain regional autonomy. So this is a strongly motivated insurgency with deep historical roots. It is not an Iranian puppet regime. There is a significant chance that the population under Houthi control will support the Houthis. It is a recipe for a long and drawn out conflict.

The correct way to bring peace to the Red Sea is to stop the Gaza strip fighting and rebuild it so the Palestinians can return and hold open and fair elections. That requires skill, patience, and sophistication. Not qualities in abundance in the Trump administration. Peace is Hard. War is Easy. My own view is that Israel has deviated from the narrow, straight path of virtue in this conflict. The damage to the Gaza strip exceeds any legitimate response. It breaks the threshold that qualifies as revenge.

Photo of US fighter jet lifting off aircraft carrier in the Red Sea

Map of Africa-1 Fibre Optic Subsea Cable

Map of Fibre Optic Subsea Blue-Raman Cable

Map of Fibre Optic Subsea 2Africa Cable


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