Google's View On Orbital Data Centers
Pundits have wrecklessly proclaimed that Google believes in orbital data centers. A more accurate description is that the hyperscaler is exploring the idea's potential and obstacles by conducting orbital experiments like the Sun Catcher satellite. But Google has no delusions that orbital data centers are a real alternative to terrestrial facilities for the next 10 to 20 years. Google runs lots of experiments because it is cash flow machine.
Google's head of data center energy expressed skepticism that orbital data centers make sense any time soon. The costs could be as much as 100x their terrestrial counterparts when the cost of maintaining and upgrading hardware is included. To be clear, 100x was not the best estimate, but reflects the fact that greenfield developments generally result in massive overruns and that costs depend on whether it is a throw away orbital data center or a long term DC where maintenance is required. Most importantly, the cost of putting a kilogram in orbit today is still a couple thousand dollars regardless of Musk's promises and forecasts.
She also stated the generator power capacity is not the gating factor. Rather the hurdles include transmission grid updates and the Last Mile to the site. According to her the power delays are partly due to inexperienced new data center players. I interpret this to mean the Neoclouds. Most Neoclouds have pivoted from unrelated businesses like Oracle or much lower scale data center operations like Bitcoin mining (Coreweave). Microsoft has expressed similar sentiments. It is not renewing an Oracle compute contract and has stated it has better in-house expertise than its outsourcing partners. Google speeds power deployment by prepaying grid upgrades over 15 to 20 periods, posts restoration bonds to satisfy local authorities, and ended the practice of NDAs with local governments.
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